Brexit is not the end of the world but it should (?) be the end of (continental) Europe as we have known it since the EU developed into a 28 nations potpourri and the Eurozone was badly created not starting by harmonizing tax structures and social protection system.
The not handling of the (poor) Greek situation is a perfect demonstration of the total inability of the bureaucratic and inefficient EU and Eurozone Commission “Governance” (sic) to not only solve problems, but (mainly) to provide guidance.
Greece, less than 2% of Eurozone’s GNP was the tail that wagged the dog. The populist Syriza party who with Tsipras won Greek elections on January 2015 (18 months ago) with a populist and unrealistic platform and ever since was given far too important and continuous attention by the EU (as usual), France, Germany, etc… and by ECB and IMF, costing every day more to the Eurozone taxpayers, when it should have been exited from the Eurozone at least 6-7 years before.
This undue and pernicious laxity and indecision favored immensely the eclosion of populist parties all over Europe.
The cries of victory from europhobe parties in (by order of GNP importance) France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark (even Germany with AFD), etc… is not due to Brexit but was well preceded and “contaminated” by how Greece got and gets away with totally unacceptable behavior showing the huge limitations of EU and Eurozone “Governances” leaving the door open to populist “ideology” (sic).
These populist parties are or will demand the organization of consultations / referendums to exit their countries from the EU.
Europe enters a long tunnel of elections. The Spaniards are voting Sunday to elect their MPs and the election could favor Podemos, the party of the radical left hostile to Europe of austerity advocated by Germany. The Italians will be as follows in October with a referendum on the proposed reform of the Italian Constitution. The decision of Prime Minister Renzi, to transform this consultation into a plebiscite and resign if it fails will favor the populist 5 Star Movement (who gained two major successes already by obtaining Rome and Turin governance). The legislation in the Netherlands in March 2017 and the presidential election in France in May 2017 will also show considerable growth in representation of populist movements (PVV in Netherlands and FN in France).
The inadequate austerity policies which Germany had tried to impose in 2013 instead of pushing for complete social economic structural reforms (which Germany had to a great extent accomplished since the beginning of the XXI century) created further strong disagreements between disciplined Northern countries and lax Southern countries including France, the champion of budget laxity and “no reforms”…
This helped to create denials of solidarity in rapidly mounting indebtedness favored by ECB’s irresponsible “policies” putting the cart before the horses with money flooding, which now includes negative interest to banks, to push demand. Moneys mainly used by the “rich” companies and by nations to increase indebtedness, and little used by SMEs who employ 95% or more of the working population, which clearly shows that ECB, and Central Banking in general, have no policies to diminish effectively high unemployment, and mainly underemployment.
Now the EU and openly France, through Hollande’s declarations, want the UK to nominate immediately a new PM and not wait until October 2016 as Cameron declared. Why? Because the EU is afraid that more member countries might want to abandon the Eurozone, the real reason that could provoke this being the totally inefficient Governance of the EU and the Eurozone Commission and Germany’s parochial and selfish policies which make this country unfit to “indirectly govern” the Eurozone.
It will take well over 2 years to negotiate the Brexit and a number of bilateral agreements will see the day because intra EU – UK trade is not going to stop
I only wrote seven posts since October 2015 because it became too monotonous to write all the time the same comments with nothing happening because of the Governments’ obsolescence in general and the total inability of the Eurozone “Governance” (sic) to reform macro social-economics in this supposed “common interest” area.
This may seem an arrogant statement but I have written 2000 posts from April 2011 until October 2015 and made a great number of concrete alternative proposals not limiting myself to criticism.
I have also written – 2014 / 2015 – in self-edition – Amazon – two books whose titles are self-explanatory: “Why Obsolete Macro Governance Is Killing the World Economy” and “Growth through Structural Reforms” (With Leadership and Competence Great Opportunities Exist).
The motto now is to reform Europe social economically and contemplating huge migrants problems to “regain strong support of citizens” because “we must listen to the voice of the people rather than the Eurocrats – nice wording.
How? By successive meetings as usual, first (Monday, June 27th), between Germany, France, Italy, the Eurozone three top economies GNP wise and one day later by the Council of the remaining 27 EU members. Nothing will come out of these unprepared (as usual) meetings…due to past and mounting cacophony.
The “future of Europe” (sic) is supposed to be played in Berlin, with lukewarm Merkel facing its – Germany – responsibilities (as usual). Some of the main European “leaders” (sic) will meet in Berlin on Monday, June 27th, around the Chancellor: EU Chairman Tusk, at first, and then, later on, Hollande and Renzi. They will prepare “all the response” (sic) that will be discussed next day at the European Council with two objectives: to prevent the risk of contagion to other member states tempted by an output and offer the prospect of a rebound for Europe (which is totally unprepared and will have no effect whatsoever).
Already the fight for predominance has started. The Elysee Palace announced Friday night that a first working dinner on Saturday (today) Hollande and Renzi will meet and Tusk will be “received”on Monday morning. The configuration of these meetings go beyond the traditional Franco-German axis, it reflects a competition between Paris and Berlin on the leadership of future discussions. The differences between Paris and Berlin on the future of the EU, the political weakness of the French head of state and criticism about the German Chancellor object to its policy in Europe are not likely to facilitate dialogue.
Merkel advocated to “analyze calmly and wisely,” the consequences of Brexit. The procedure will be opened in the name of Article 50 of the Treaty “will last several years,” said the pragmatic Merkel, noting that by then Britain “remains a member of the Union” and was held by its commitments. If the Chancellor wants to warn PM Cameron’s future successor against any unilateral decisions, it also intends to preserve the economic interests of Germany and of the EC. A hasty breaking might frontally affect the economies of the EU.
Growth, employment, intra-European financial solidarity, the influx of refugees, borders or defense, etc…, these are the main subjects which Merkel and Hollande are now on notice to discuss after a decade of immobilism. Then comes the headache of a possible (?) reconstruction of the EU, without rushing Twenty five capitals, now that the exit door was opened in the UK.
Is this the beginning of the end for the European Union?
“No!” Replied curtly Juncker, the most prominent figure of the Brussels “bubble”. Continental Europe is facing an earthquake, but the reflexes of eurocracy die hard.
Brussels had fallen asleep with the first estimates favorable to the British “yes”, but next morning, Friday, it awoke paralyzed by the “no” numbers. In shock, it tried all day to keep itself in countenance, with obsolete formulas. Whatever is officially said, no one doubt that this is now a matter of survival for the EU. Tusk, Chairman and organizer of EU summits is coming closer to the truth: “The situation is serious, it is very dramatic. It is impossible to predict all the consequences. (…) But what does not kill you makes you stronger in the end”.
An EU summit will convene at twenty-seven, without UK’s PM Cameron. This is the end of a long denial, a break with the legal fiction that the UK would remain a full member of the EU until the divorce is legally sanctioned, by two years.”This means that London is no longer associated with the decision says Martin Schulz, head of the European Parliament, a few journalists. The EU is determined (?…) to quickly turn the page and to proclaim to the whole world. “Europe wants to act quickly”. It would be the first time since the Eurozone was created…!
To avoid being “dismissed” the EU and the Commission request European country “leaders” to demand that the UK notify formally and immediately its intention to leave the EU, without waiting for October 2016 as declared by Cameron. “Outside, it’s out!”: the official slogan of the continent in a loop. “There will be no new negotiations” with London, confirms the European declaration.
The EU political priority is clear: avoid a chain reaction and counter what Hollande euphemistically called the “dilution” of the EU. He could have said dissolution…
The real threat to the unity of Europe from the North and the rich countries, who feel they have already given too much and could give, like the British, the temptation of isolationism.
The Southern countries have paid great social costs to their financial collapse since 2008 without reforming themselves socially economically, the big error!
Eastern Europe shows its rage at the uncontrolled influx of refugees and migrants.
For most of them, the EU does not respond to the promise of its founders.It became a heavy techno bureaucratic non administration, a threat to their prosperity. The British drew the conclusion with Brexit.
What might, slowly and finally, be emerging sometime in the future is a two-speed Europe, this being most worrying to the Eurozone Commission since their jobs would be at peril – a Godsend should it happen!
In a nutshell it is what I have been “proposing” since April 2011 accompanied by this blog’s concrete alternative and practical “solutions”.