Archives for category: Eurozone Macrovolatiliy

It has taken me nearly six years but I have now arrived at the conclusion that this European Union (EU) and the Eurozone have proven to be real failures and that if one went down to brass tacks it would show that having this “Union” (sic) and the euro did not really make a positive difference; that the “whole shebang” should be scrapped, leaving only “pieces” (to be defined) to regroup  differently and basically  keep a “customs’ union”.

I have spent six years trying to understand and analize in as much depth as possible all this, written sinceApril 2011 – 2 000 post in my blog:“macrovolatility.com”, written in 2014 / 2015 two books in self-edition with Amazon with self-explanatory titles: “Why Obsolete Macro Governance Is Killing the World Economy” and “Growth through Structural Reforms” (With Leadership and Competence Great Opportunities Exist).

I am not agreeing anymore with what I had written many times in this blog, the last one on 06/25/2016 in my post: “Eurozone Governance Radical Change Needed to get to a “2 Speed” Area Organization“, it will not work either…(please refer to this by clicking on above link).

In fact the last drop was when reading several times these last days that Greece’s situation was still being discussed by all “the powers to be” – re The Guardian‘s 02/11 /2017 article:No crisis’ on Greece bailout deal, says eurozone chief”…!!!
All these European/Eurozone “top officials” are such great techno bureaucrats that reality has totally  escaped from their pseudo “thinking” (sic), in six years they have not been able to decide on Greece’s situation which only represents 1 to 2% of EU’s GDP!!!

In this blog I have written since at least 5 years that Greece should leave or be exited from the Eurozone for its own sake, it would now be quite rich with a low valued drachma hugely expanding tourism, the number one wealth item, instead it has cost the Eurozone a “fortune”, protected corrupt local politicians who refused to exercise the results of the June 2015 referendum where the bailout conditions were rejected by a majority of over 61% , with the “No” vote winning in all of Greece’s regions, the Greek people wanting Greece out of the hands of the totally incompetent Eurozone leaders, IMF, ECB and German Chancellor Merkel, the real Eurozone leader.Greece has 180% indebtedness vs GDP!!!

Greece is just the tip of the iceberg, add Italy (3rd Eurozone economy) with a huge debt (135% of GDP) and only 1% growth, Spain (4th Eurozone economy), probably the most competent and growing (3%!) mediterranean country, still hampered with huge unemployment, with banks not passing on ECB’s continued  flow of printed liquidity to credit facilities to the biggest employer, the SME/TPEs, its indebtedness as % of GDP having grown to be 100%.

France 2nd biggest Eurozone economy, with miserable 1.1% growth, huge unemployment, is under great political stress and  the Number one, by far, Eurozone economy, Germany (1.9% GDP growth and “only” 71% indebteness as % of GDP) continues with is parochial self-serving Eurozone policy, nobody in Brussels will interfere…

The Eurozone has been conceived as an erratic type of puzzle / potpourri of countries with totally different mentalities and ‘usus”, great differences in social-economic macrostructures, no real EU / Eurozone “Governance and with Germany having benefitted from the euro creation in 1999 onwards with a 20-30%  favorable euro/DM parity which has helped considerably to boost their economy to the detriment of the rest.

There is, finally no way all this will work (what, in reality?)

Let each country solve its own problems, they are all countries with a long history which will serve as the backbone, they need to adapt far more rapidly to all the past, present and future innovations in “technology” and its meteoric evolution, in other words the entire political class needs to change ASAP, let each nation’s government be responsible for their own situations and not anymore EU / Eurozone “Governances” (sic) which have no power and are Germany’s slaves.

Belatedly, as usual, European Union (EU)’s President warns against US President elect divisive tactics to the detriment of the EU’s stability.

US President elect decrees are mostly unacceptable to the civilized world and a (very bad) first in US’s “governmental” (sic) policies, especially the now nearly universally decried anti-immigration decree which this blog is denouncing for the fourth day in a row.

EU has not managed to construct a “working” political, social economic and not even even financial area (the latter beacuse of the erratic policies of ECB) because it has done mostly everything wrong from the beginning of the instauration of the Eurozone and has also accepted totally disparate membership of 28 member countries who do not ressemble each other in mentality and usus and were prone to be a fiasco, which it is, being unable to agree on practically any important topic and subjecting some nations to undue austerity instead of pushing for badly needed structural reforms .

In the 2000 posts I have written in my blog from April 2011 until October 2016 and my two books I have consistently proposed and described the change from the current EU “mammoth” to a radically new compact European Guidance Unit with a division between Northern countries and Southern ones who have nothing in common, with France somewhat in the middle, and due to huge past erroneous political expansion policies continuing with the inadequate integration of ex-satellite Communist countries which have created havoc with totally different remuneration, taxation and social protection “policies”.

I now, finally, feel that this renewed construction of Europe is also doomed and that it is preferable to go back to a customs’ union and abandon the euro, thus leaving each country to devise its own political and social economic systems, own deficit and indebteness ratios to GNP and be able to take its own eventual financial corrective actions.

If individual countries are having such a hard time governing themselves, blocs of countries will not be able to do their job plus a comprehensive “area” job with an umbrella as the euro which was devised far too early and totally unprepared with countries who had no harmony whatsoever in basic social economic policy structures.

The world has changed enormously and in a meteoric way technologically / innovationwise.

Governances need to adapt to these formidable changes which is very difficult for what seems to be a “lost political generation”.

Lets’count on and turn to the current young one who is in phase with these changes, it’s  a worthwhile bet I believe (as a “senior”…)

Please read below, under More,  NYT‘s 01/31/2017 article:”Trump Threatens Europe’s Stability, a Top Leader Warns”

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I am referring to my 06/25/2016 post: “Brexit not End of “World” but Hopefully End of EU Non Governance”, I am herewith repeating a concrete proposal made X times in my blog for a two-speed Eurozone to be installed instead of the past and current obsolete Eurozone Commission “organization (sic) of a 19 countries potpourri and a not decisive anymore Germany-France axis.

This “radical change proposal” is not due to the Brexit but to the decades’ long inefficiency and indecision of the EU and Eurozone’s “Governance.

The Brexit now happened and long exit negotiations will start on October 2016 and will last for 2 years at least and more. We will once more see how all the already announced  meetings will come out with zilch since everything is based on improvisation as usual.

Several forms of partnership with the EU exist, with varying degrees of integration. But none really are suited to the new situation created by the Brexit

The European Economic Area is not interesting for the UK since it would have to comply with EU legislation, neither is the “Swiss Compromise” and falling under WTO rules is not acceptable to the UK.

Therefore long negotiations might end with a revised free trade area scheme and other important mutual cooperation items  to be included in a series of bilateral country agreements.

In my blog and my September 2014 self-edited Amazon book on Eurozone “Governance” (“Why Obsolete Macro Governance is Killing the World Economy”) I made concrete proposals on how the Eurozone  could gradually reach social economic integration and accordingly  function efficiently. I will only include here the call them highlights:

I formulated my proposals by including a “modus operandi”, like with private corporations’ organization and inter functional “instructions”…

This Eurozone restructuring proposal needs to be understood as referring “only” (sic) to the social (including education and training) – economic and financial topics in Eurozone “Management”.

It does not extend to all the other ”regal” governmental areas, such as the major areas of health, defense and military, interior, foreign affairs, etc…

Instead of being an Organization which gives “Directives” to member countries, the Eurozone “Governance” should be reflexive, pro active, involved in “the “field” with local governments, in summary act as an executive counseling unit.

 From an “operational” standpoint, the 19 Eurozone countries should be divided, at the beginning, into 2 categories of countries:

–  “Speed 1 “ countries, these being the most performing countries, which are Germany, The Netherlands, Finland, Austria, including Luxembourg which is very ”atypical”.

 –  “Speed 2” countries, these being Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Greece (*), Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, to which I add France, the 2nd biggest Eurozone country, but whose future is quite uncertain for the time being.

(*) I have felt for a long time that Greece should have exited the Eurozone long ago, this would have been beneficial and far less costly to both the Eurozone and Greece itself.

If a corporation had kept a product which did not “make it” for years, it would have suffered considerably, and would have had to sacrifice putting adequate resources on their existing “good“ products” and eventual projects on ”new” products, running also the risk of lacking adequate financing for the whole corporation, this goes back to the famous and still actual BCG method of the 60’s of the ”golden cow and the rest  of the ”animals” (products) and what to do  with them…

Instead of having lost all this time and money, the Eurozone Governance (?) should have had positive discussions with the UK, second biggest country in Europe and 5h biggest economy worldwide which has been increasing its GDP and decreasing unemployment substantially.

1. Operational Social-Economic decision making organization and modus operandi

“Speed 1” countries will commit to transitionally financing “Speed 2” countries, under certain conditions, and mainly under a totally different reciprocal communication “methodology”, under the supervision, control  and follow –up of a new and compact Eurozone Central Governance Unit.

– All countries must prepare short (1 year), medium (3 to 5 years) and long-term term (above 5 years going up to 10 years) strategies, clearly defining priorities.

– All countries need to define Operational plans – short and medium term (see above)

– All countries need to determine their Financial Needs plans – short and medium term, based on operational plans

The Eurozone Central Governance Unit needs what private corporations call a “Controller”, which in macro terms should be called a Eurozone Minister of Economy, who reports to the “General Manager”, that is the President of Eurozone‘s Central Governance Unit.

This Eurozone Minister of Economy will head the Social-Economics Council, where the main responsibility is furthering job creation and reducing “official” unemployment and even more so under employment.

In private corporations, the Controller has reporting to him/her a “Planning Manager” who is knowledgeable of all “functions” of the corporation, to accordingly coordinate the various activities, and enable this function to plan effectively on a corporate basis to help build Operative corporate planning.

In every Eurozone member country’s government this function should be filled by the Budget Secretary reporting to the country’s Minister of Economy.

The Eurozone Economy Ministry includes under the Eurozone Planning Manager’s supervision: “country social – economic counselors” assigned to specific Eurozone Member countries.

In private corporations, there exists a “Human Resources Director” who reports to the “General Manager.”

In every member country’s government this function is that of the Minister of Labor, who reports to the Prime Minister.

This Minister of Labor function needs to be far more liaised with the Minister of Economy, and be closely related to the Budget Secretary, who needs to prepare, analyze and follow up on the country’s budget/plan. This is necessary in order to integrate the analysis of Job Creation and various forms of Unemployment and Underemployment, which are the top priority factors to be improved, into the Operational Planning of the country.

2. Financial modalities and decision making which are required to finance agreed upon strategic and operational plans.

The Eurozone Central Governance Unit needs what private corporations call a “Treasurer”, which in macro terms could be called a Eurozone Minister of Finance, who reports to the “General Manager”, that is the President of Eurozone‘s “Governance”.

The Eurozone Minister of Finance will head the “Finance Council”.

The Eurozone Finance Ministry includes under its supervision: “country financial counselors” assigned to specific Eurozone Member countries.

This pragmatic social economic and financial Eurozone Central Governance Unit organization is what will make for a dynamic, hands on, pro active, ”in the field working” and “managerial” relationship between the Central Eurozone Governance Unit and the various Eurozone’s countries ’governments.

It will have the great advantage of implicating – constantly – and giving responsibility on an individual basis to Eurozone’s countries’ Prime Ministers: Economy, Labor and Financial Ministers, and to their Governments obviously (Prime Minister and President).

This whole organization is extensively developed in my above cited book.

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Brexit is not the end of the world but it should (?) be the end of (continental) Europe as we have known it since the EU developed into a 28 nations potpourri and the Eurozone was badly created not starting by harmonizing tax structures and social protection system.

The not handling of the (poor) Greek situation is a perfect demonstration of the total inability of the bureaucratic and inefficient EU and Eurozone Commission “Governance” (sic) to not only solve problems, but (mainly) to provide guidance.

Greece, less than 2% of Eurozone’s GNP was the tail that wagged the dog. The populist Syriza party who with Tsipras won Greek elections on January 2015 (18 months ago) with a populist and unrealistic platform and ever since was given far too important and continuous attention by the EU (as usual), France, Germany, etc… and by ECB and IMF, costing every day more to the Eurozone taxpayers, when it should have been exited from the Eurozone at least 6-7 years before.

This undue and pernicious laxity and indecision favored immensely the eclosion of populist parties all over Europe.

The cries of victory from europhobe parties in (by order of GNP importance)  France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark (even Germany with AFD), etc… is not due to Brexit but was well preceded and “contaminated” by how Greece got and gets away with totally unacceptable behavior showing the huge limitations of EU and Eurozone “Governances” leaving the door open to populist “ideology” (sic).

These populist parties are or will demand the organization of consultations / referendums to exit their countries from the EU.

Europe enters a long tunnel of elections. The Spaniards are voting Sunday to elect their MPs and the election could favor Podemos, the party of the radical left hostile to Europe of austerity advocated by Germany. The Italians will be as follows in October with a referendum on the proposed reform of the Italian Constitution. The decision of Prime Minister Renzi, to transform this consultation into a plebiscite and resign if it fails will favor the populist 5 Star Movement (who gained two major successes already by obtaining Rome and Turin governance). The legislation in the Netherlands in March 2017 and the presidential election in France in May 2017  will also show considerable growth in representation of populist movements (PVV in Netherlands and FN in France). 

The inadequate austerity policies which Germany had tried to impose in 2013 instead of pushing for complete social economic structural reforms (which Germany had to a great extent accomplished since the beginning of the XXI century) created further strong disagreements between disciplined Northern  countries and lax Southern countries including France, the champion of budget laxity and “no reforms”…

This helped to create denials of solidarity in rapidly mounting indebtedness favored by ECB’s irresponsible “policies” putting the cart before the horses with money flooding, which now includes negative interest to banks, to push demand. Moneys mainly used by the “rich” companies and by nations to increase indebtedness, and little used by SMEs who employ 95% or more of the working population, which clearly shows that ECB, and Central Banking in general, have no policies to diminish effectively high unemployment, and mainly underemployment.

Now the EU and openly France, through Hollande’s declarations, want the UK to nominate immediately a new PM and not wait until October 2016 as Cameron declared. Why? Because the EU is afraid that more member countries might want to abandon the Eurozone, the real reason that could provoke this being the totally inefficient Governance of the EU and the Eurozone Commission and Germany’s parochial and selfish policies which make this country unfit to “indirectly govern” the Eurozone.

It will take well over 2 years to negotiate the Brexit and a number of bilateral agreements will see the day because intra EU – UK trade is not going to stop

I only wrote seven posts since October 2015 because it became too monotonous to write all the time the same comments with nothing happening because of the Governments’ obsolescence in general and the  total inability of the Eurozone “Governance” (sic) to reform macro social-economics in this supposed “common interest” area.

This may seem an arrogant statement but I have written 2000 posts from April 2011 until October 2015 and made a great number of concrete alternative proposals not limiting myself to criticism.

I have also written – 2014 / 2015 – in self-edition – Amazon – two books whose titles are self-explanatory: “Why Obsolete Macro Governance Is Killing the World Economy” and “Growth through Structural Reforms” (With Leadership and Competence Great Opportunities Exist).

The motto now is to reform Europe  social economically and contemplating huge migrants problems to “regain strong support of citizens” because “we must listen to the voice of the people rather than the Eurocrats – nice wording.

How? By successive meetings as usual, first (Monday, June 27th), between Germany, France, Italy, the Eurozone three top economies GNP wise and one day later by the  Council of the remaining 27 EU members. Nothing will come out of these unprepared (as usual) meetings…due to past and mounting cacophony.

The “future of Europe” (sic) is supposed to be played in Berlin, with lukewarm Merkel facing its – Germany – responsibilities (as usual). Some of the main European “leaders” (sic) will meet in Berlin on Monday, June 27th, around the Chancellor: EU Chairman Tusk, at first, and then, later on, Hollande and Renzi. They will prepare “all the response” (sic) that will be discussed next day at the European Council with two objectives: to prevent the risk of contagion to other member states tempted by an output and offer the prospect of a rebound for Europe (which is totally unprepared and will have no effect whatsoever).

Already the fight for predominance has started. The Elysee Palace announced Friday night that a first working dinner on Saturday (today) Hollande and Renzi will meet and Tusk will be “received”on Monday morning. The configuration of these meetings go beyond the traditional Franco-German axis, it reflects a competition between Paris and Berlin on the leadership of future discussions. The differences between Paris and Berlin on the future of the EU, the political weakness of the French head of state and criticism about the German Chancellor object to its policy in Europe are not likely to facilitate dialogue.

Merkel advocated  to “analyze calmly and wisely,” the consequences of Brexit. The procedure will be opened in the name of Article 50 of the Treaty “will last several years,” said the pragmatic Merkel, noting that by then Britain “remains a member of the Union” and was held by its commitments. If the Chancellor wants to warn PM Cameron’s  future successor against any unilateral decisions, it also intends to preserve the economic interests of Germany and of the EC. A hasty breaking might frontally affect the economies of the EU.

Growth, employment, intra-European financial solidarity, the influx of refugees, borders or defense, etc…, these are the main subjects which Merkel and Hollande are now on notice to discuss after a decade of immobilism. Then comes the headache of a possible (?) reconstruction of the EU, without rushing Twenty five capitals, now that the exit door was opened in the UK.

Is this the beginning of the end for the European Union?

“No!” Replied curtly Juncker, the most prominent figure of the Brussels “bubble”. Continental Europe is facing an earthquake, but the reflexes of eurocracy die hard.
Brussels had fallen asleep with the first estimates favorable to the British “yes”, but next morning, Friday, it awoke paralyzed by the “no” numbers. In shock, it tried all day to keep itself in countenance, with obsolete formulas. Whatever is officially said, no one doubt that this is now a matter of survival for the EU. Tusk, Chairman and organizer of EU summits is coming closer to the truth: “The situation is serious, it is very dramatic. It is impossible to predict all the consequences. (…) But what does not kill you makes you stronger in the end”.

An EU summit will convene at twenty-seven, without UK’s PM Cameron. This is the end of a long denial, a break with the legal fiction that the UK would remain a full member of the EU until the divorce is legally sanctioned, by two years.”This means that London is no longer associated with the decision says Martin Schulz, head of the European Parliament, a few journalists. The EU is determined (?…) to quickly turn the page and to proclaim to the whole world. “Europe wants to act quickly”. It would be the first time since the Eurozone was created…!

To avoid being “dismissed” the EU and the Commission request European country “leaders” to demand that the UK notify formally and immediately its intention to leave the EU, without waiting for October 2016 as declared by Cameron. “Outside, it’s out!”: the official slogan of the continent in a loop. “There will be no new negotiations” with London, confirms the European declaration.

The EU political priority is clear: avoid a chain reaction and counter what Hollande euphemistically called the “dilution” of the EU. He could have said dissolution…

The real threat to the unity of Europe from the North and the rich countries, who feel they have already given too much and could give, like the British, the temptation of isolationism.

The Southern countries have paid great social costs to their financial collapse since 2008 without reforming themselves socially economically, the big error!

Eastern Europe shows its rage at the uncontrolled influx of refugees and migrants. 

For most of them, the EU does not respond to the promise of its founders.It became a heavy techno bureaucratic non administration, a threat to their prosperity. The British drew the conclusion with Brexit.

What might, slowly and finally, be emerging sometime in the future is a two-speed Europe, this being most worrying to the Eurozone Commission since their jobs would be at peril – a Godsend should it happen!

In a nutshell it is what I have been “proposing” since April 2011 accompanied by this blog’s concrete alternative and practical “solutions”.

 

I have not been writing any posts since 9th February, 2016 because it became too monotonous to write all the time the same comments with nothing happening because of the Governments’ obsolescence in general and the  total inability of the Eurozone Governance (sic) to reform macro social-economics in this supposed “common interest” area.

This may seem an arrogant statement but I have written 2000 posts from April 2011 until October 2015 and (only) three posts since October 2015 and made a great number of concrete alternative proposals not limiting myself to criticism.

I have also written – 2014 / 2015 – in self-edition – Amazon – two books whose titles are self-explanatory: “Why Obsolete Macro Governance Is Killing the World Economy” and “Growth through Structural Reforms” (With Leadership and Competence Great Opportunities Exist).

I am now quoting entirely the Express.co. UK’s 06/11/2016 article: “Eurozone heads towards its next monetary crisis” and showing it under MORE at the end of this post – you can also read it by clicking on above link.

This article, in a nutshell, relates to the incompetence of the EU and to the current domineering subject: Brexit or no Brexit, leaning heavily on the Brexit side.

My Comments

The only reason I am writing this short post is because of my continuous (5 years) largely repeated total disagreement with Central Banking dominant positions and “policies” (sic) in  the US, the Eurozone, to “limit” myself to these two huge areas.

The below cited article touches on the disgraceful “policies” of the ECB, which is trying to be  even worse than the FED (a real challenge!…) .

Last year I tried to be published by a traditional large and well known publisher in the UK / US and since they could not use the material in my two self-edited books with Amazon I wrote 100 pages of an eventual third book which I had entitled: “Structural Reforms Impeded by Central Banking”.

This was refused and the main reason was that it was not “classroom material” and that it was “iconoclastic”. I refuted the second point by arguing that there were no idols to be destroyed but that long awaited strong (not “reformettes”) social-economic structural reforms were not being achieved because of , in general, Governments ‘ ineffectiveness and Central Banking flooding markets with printed money at even negative interest rates by ECB, which made it easier for most ineffective Governments in the Eurozone to avoid implementing social-economic structural reforms, and by the same token to increase already huge indebtedness.

Now, Dragui, one of the big culprits that the Eurozone is not really getting out of recession, wants to initiate “helicopter” money flooding (see below article) to push demand (hopefully a joke?).

It suffices to observe the situations in Greece (the total absurdity, it should have been exited long ago), Spain (contaminated by the Greek situation and the popular new “Greek type” political parties’ expansion, with no Government since months), France (continuing going down the hill because of no capacity to reform itself), etc, etc…!

Conclusion: Nothing basically changes and if so it is for the worse – relatively.

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As repeated a”thousand” times (*) in this blog Central Banks work for Markets and to Save “Big Banks Too Big to Fail”.

Central Banks are “Independent”, they do what they want!

Point in case now among many others in Europe: Italy (Big talker Dragui’s home)

Italy is in the middle of a very severe Bank crisis due to “Bad Receivables” which produce “Bad Debts”, which will remain unpaid.? But, surely the ECB (European Central Bnk) will print some more  to “save them” (ECB always “saves” somebody, until they go under…).

Mr Dragui “interrogated” (!) Italian banks as to their Bad Debts’ situation (which is a record 17.5% – Eurozone’s average seemingly (?) is around 5% – and represents 200 Billion euros!)

ECB should have “known” way  ahead all the facts of this essential economic / financial data and taken appropriate action, several “gimmicky “remedies – like “bad banks”…had been considered.

Real  economic steps are to provision realistically bad debts (and tighten banks’operations and remunerations, like is done with private corporations), but ECB (and EU / EC) do not want this, they seemingly (?) prefer to increase banks’ capitalization, which would require more “money”, which ECB would print and “save ” the banks…

These would be the “normal procedures” (sic), those which have cost the Eurozone trillions, it is called “fleeing into the future” (“la fuite en avant”) and wait for “miracles”…

One really wonders what ECB does, apart from issuing trillion QEs?

The ECB is 200% responsible for the huge increase in Eurozone Indebtedness and wanting to “solve” all matters with Trillion QE’s. Pushing Indebtedness in a non controlled banking system is “asking for it”, and the result is pushing “bad loans” and getting “bad debts”.

ECB did “not care ” to make sure that the Banking System was Operating correctly (that is not “sensational” enough for Mr. Dragui!), not that strongly increasing Bad Debts might cause another “Bubble”.

ECB has not done their job in accelerating the Eurozone Banking Union and really Controlling private banks operations!

I will not even mention Brussels’ EU or EC, they do nothing!

(*) I have written 2000 posts since April 2011 and stopped (I write an occasional post like today when matters get out of hand) my blog in October 2015 because there was no purpose to continue writing.

I have written and published 2 books: “Why Obsolete Macro Governance is Killing the World Economy” (Amazon- September 2014) and “Growth through Structural Reforms” (Amazon – April 2015). I had written over 100 pages of a third book, temporarily called: “Central Banks Impede Structural Reforms”, sent this text to 5 big publishers and was refused because it was not a “text book” and also was considered “iconoclastic !

Nobody really want to know…

 

 

European “Non Governance” and tremendous and expensive Bureaucracy has done Nothing for Decades and needs to be Removed entirely, if not like Garcia Marquez said, it is: “An Announced Death”.

I only write sporadic posts here since it is useless to try to propose meaningful and significant changes….

I have been writing  on Football (Soccer) since October, 2015, more amusing, but only to some extent; due to all the problems related to now, Football’s “Governance”… – FIFA’ and its longstanding and huge Corruption, my blog being “footballgreatest.com”.

Photo – Prime Minister Matteo Renzi

Follows a translation made by me of Le Figaro’s Premium’s  01/22/2016 article on young and exceptionally “productive” Italian Prime Minister Mario Renzi declarations on Europe: “Fed up with Europe, Matteo Renzi denies arguing for the sake of politicking”.

I subscribe nearly completely to Renzi’s declarations, after having written 2000 posts and two books with self-explanatory titles: “Why Obsolete Macro Governance is Killing the World Economy (September 2014 -Amazon) and “Growth through Structural Reforms” (April 2015 – Amazon) on this subject since I created my blog in April 2011.

No serious and complete Structural Reforms were made (only “reformettes”), total real unemployment ( including under employment) is still huge, instead Indebtedness is astronomic thanks to totally erroneous accomodative (interest and quantitative wise) Central Banking “policies” (sic): ECB (plus FED, Bank of Japan, Bank of China, etc…), growth being far too slow and solely dependent on record low Oil prices (which are killing the oil related economy) and which will not last, the banking system is preparing is umptieth – Oil and Assets – bubble, the euro exchange rate is nearly at bottom and will not last, Migration problems are not tackled (Germany is totally wrong!), if this continues the UK will exit – “Anything Else” ? – Woody Allen‘s film.

Photo – Woody Allen in “Anything Else” – 2003

Quotes – My comments in italics – in the text

Budgetary flexibility, European investments, management of migrants, state aid, banking crises, EU funding for Turkey: the grievances accumulate between the Italian leader and Brussels.

Migration policies, review of the Dublin and Schengen agreements, state aid to banks in difficulty, flexibility of Public Accounts: the violent diatribe which set fire to the powder a week ago in the relations between Matteo Renzi and Jean-Claude Juncker has its origins in a variety of long-simmering grievances.

Paradox of a leader whose impeccable European credo gave his Democratic Party 8,000,000 votes in the elections of May 2014 in the Strasbourg Assembly, which now feels despised to the point of accusing the European Commission of “two weights, two measures”.

A reconciliation should profile his trip to Berlin on January 29, and then the arrival of Juncker in Rome. Inevitably, it will probably not be painless for Europe, nor especially for Italy.

The Italian prime minister denies being “an argumentative polemicist or politicking”: “Europe is in a crisis of identity, everything has failed. It must change. We have our proposals and our allies are not lacking. Brussels is not infallible, “he said. His Secretary of State for Europe Sandro Gozi adds: “Some in Brussels want to send the revision of institutions after 2019, with the future Commission. Such a long period is one that Europe cannot afford anymore. ”

The most heated debate concerns the € 3 billion promised by the EU (i.e. Germany – who continues to lead the Eurozone – My Comment) to Turkey for its help curb migration. Matteo Renzi threat to suspend the Italian contribution to this fund and asks that all aid to Turkey come from the regular budget of the Union.

On the pretext that Ankara would not give sufficient guarantees on its allocation to migrants. Massimo Franco, a columnist for the Corriere della Sera, “this negation by Renzi for a Turkey fund is being used to relegate Matteo Renzi in a corner and shows a European exasperation against him that he should not underestimate (in other words: “Renzi, shut up!”- my comment).

Disagreement still on the destination of the 40,000 migrants landed in Greece and Italy and that should have been distributed in the rest of Europe. The July 20915 agreements remained unfulfilled.

Italy also calls for an urgent revision of the Dublin agreement to regulate migratory flows. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who chairs Europe for six months (who is implicitly agreeing with Germany, so far… ,my comment) the fund immediately approved the Turkish funds and request to accelerate the implementation “too slow” in its discretion, also to do so with the “registration centers” (“hotspots”) which collect the fingerprints of migrants to their landing.

Other sticking points: the public wants assurances that Italy finances its troubled banks, despite the threat of infringing Brussels procedures…. Or, the absence of the distribution of the European investment program that Matteo Renzi despairs of seeing happen.

And, above all, the ‘flexibility’ public accounts (0.2% of GDP) that Italy asks Brussels as a “due” to address the additional expenditure incurred by Italy to host 180,000 migrants the last year and probably as much this year (This is where I diverge, if all countries want subsidies for Migration problem solving, Brussels needs to create a Special “Migration”fund with Savings made in Brussels – an impossibility for “immobile” Brussels! – Needless to say – My Comment).

These debates have revealed a certain isolation of Italy on the European stage. None of the major leaders has added its voice to the protests Matteo Renzi. Commissioner Pierre Moscovici (a “clown” – my comment) considers “unfair” to criticize Juncker. And (even – contaminated…, my comment…) Italian Federica Mogherini, High Representative for Foreign and Common Security Policy, “Ms CFSP” has quietly sided with the President of the Commission (Juncker).

The accused (Renzi…), however, as some in Europe to speak up for the purpose of domestic policy, to cut the grass under the feet of the M5S and populist Northern League, seems reductive. In Parliament (Italian), government reforms are all adopted one after the other with a comfortable majority.

 

 

As usual US government and FED hide Real US Unemployment situation which is not 5% of total labor force in December 2015 but 9.9% – re below BLS chart which shows only 1.2 points improvement versus December 2014 9.9% vs 11.1%, because Under Employment  where all the  Employment problems reside is still very high – 4.9% in December 2015 vs 5.7% on December 2014.

No wonder that still many voters continue to express widespread dissatisfaction with their own prospects and those of the larger economy. The main disrupting factor that has been impacting and still does latest monthly jobs reports is further evidence that wage growth for the typical worker remains sluggish. Average hourly earnings fell slightly in December 2015, leaving the overall yearly gain at a meager 2.5 percent.

This  comes close to stagnation in wages and is mainly due to the large increase of part-time jobs at, obviously, lower pay, and that in December 2015, year-over-year (yoy) growth in multiple jobholders was an 11-month high, while yoy growth in single jobholders wast a three-month low. Since May 2015 the number of multiple jobholders has increased by 752 000, while single jobholders have increased by 429 000. In other words, multiple jobholders have been responsible for 64% of the net job gains since last spring. The disproportionate importance of multiple jobholders – forced to “make a living” out of it – shows why the labor market is weaker than it seems.

NYT published a long article on 01/08/2015 entitled: “Robust Hiring in December Caps Solid Year for U.S. Jobs” (you can click on this link if you want to read the article) about 292 000 jobs created in December 2015 with not ONE word about Under Employment…

US Growth of 2.8% in 2015, whereas high comparatively to most Western countries  is still not sufficient to change significantly the Total unemployment situation in the US,

All of my posts on this critical social-economic subject since the creation of this blog in 2011 show reasons why and propose concrete approaches, but the press and the FED continue not showing the Under Employment situation and, accordingly, are falsely informing the US public.

Until the Central Banks, in this case the FED, are not restricted in their role which is to control the banking sector performances and control pricing / inflation, the REAL Unemployment situation will not improve significantly.

The US is lacking having a Minister of Economy whose role is to set social-economic policy, this NOT being the FED’s role 

 BLS – A-15 Chart – US Unemployment – December 2015

Measure
Not seasonally adjusted
Seasonally adjusted
Dec.
2014
Nov.
2015
Dec.
2015
Dec.
2014
Aug.
2015
Sept.
2015
Oct.
2015
Nov.
2015
Dec.
2015
U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force
2.5
2.1
2.1
2.6
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
U-2 Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force
2.8
2.3
2.4
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate)
5.4
4.8
4.8
5.6
5.1
5.1
5.0
5.0
5.0
U-4 Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers
5.8
5.2
5.2
6.0
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
U-5 Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other persons marginally attached to the labor force, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force
6.7
5.8
5.9
6.9
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.1
6.1
U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force
11.1
9.6
9.8
11.2
10.3
10.0
9.8
9.9
9.9
NOTE: Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.

 

 

Happy New Year!

This is my first post since a “one post only” I issued on December 16, 2015: “Eurozone Dead due to No Governance, Immobilism and No Reforms”.

I had decided since October 2015 to interrupt writing daily posts since whatever I wrote – constructively – did not make a difference.I  Seeing that I was repeating myself constantly I wrote and published in self-edition (Amazon) two books whose titles are self-explanatory and resume the content of the 2000 posts I had issued since I started this blog in April, 2011: “Why Obsolete Macro Governance is Killing the World Economy” (September, 2014) , “Growth through Structural Reforms” (April 2015),  plus the beginning  (over 100 pages) of a third book:“Central Banks Impede Structural Reforms”, which was refused by well known classic (not self-edition) publishing companies because they felt it was not a classic text subject and labelled it “iconoclastic” (truth based on facts is seemingly considered as such…).

I therefore opted to create a new blog in October, 2015 with a lighter subject :“footballgreatest.com” , where am writing about soccer, the tag line being: “The blog that welcomes all fans who have a passion for writing about football”, but even in this universal Sports’ area I encountered the same (and highly corrupt) Governance problems than those I had been writing about in my macrovolatility.com blog:The huge FIFA Mess!, I might start writing fairy stories (non violent ones…)

Coming back to my today’s post content and in line with content of my non published book (“Central Banks Impede Structural Growth”) I am referring to declarations made by the former Dallas FED governor Robert Fisher who admits We front loaded a tremendous market rally to create a wealth effectThe Federal Reserve is a giant weapon that has no ammunition left.

I am quoting  the text of his declarations and preceding Quotes with my own – short – Comments

My Comments

As I have been writing in my posts since practically the beginning (nearly 5 years ago) I think that Central Banks worldwide (mainly Eurozone’s ECB, Japan’s Central Bank, China’s dominated by Government Central Bank, etc…), following the (bad) example of the US FED have taken over setting social- economic policy at least for the last decade, longer in effect….

This has included ineffective moves to fight unemployment (which is not their domain), publishing only classic unemployment and not referring to / emphasizing the very damaging under employment situation now even bigger than classic unemployment.

All this instead of trying to regulate the banking system and make it more performing for smaller corporations who are the biggest employer in any advanced country, and control non existing inflation, well let us say badly informed inflation where oil pricing – as one big item among others – should be separated from consumption goods which actually do show inflation.

The current end result is known by those who accept looking at facts (real macro data): slow growth (in general), big under employment (in general) with highly and artificially (through Central Banks ‘ “motivational liquidity enforcing moves”) growing markets which might create another bubble, and last but not least backing even higher indebtedness, all this helping (mostly) inefficient Governance around the world to avoid making the badly needed Social-Economic Structural Reforms.

A very good “example” (sic) is given by the Eurozone (non) Governance which is not able to produce more significant, and necessary, growth (only 1.5% in 2015 – thanks to Germany and Spain) having had the benefit of exterior factors such as oil prices (Brent at 36 USD currently), a very low (again since the euro creation) euro exchange rate vs the USD of (currently) 1.08, and no interest rate charged by ECB (negative rates if banks park funds with ECB…).

Nothing has changed in the last three months, matters got worse with migration out of Syria, large terrorism attacks in Europe, also in US coupled with US made violence due to free guns’ sales, China’s to be expected economic’s decline, etc…

Nothing will change until Governance world wide changes its bureaucratic and “politicking”approach to a realistic one, immodestly please refer to my books with concrete and I believe, constructive “proposals”, basically meaning that Social Economic Structural Reforms Need to be Fully implemented.

Quotes a video was made with Fischer‘s declarations:

Fischer: What the Fed did, and I was part of that group, we frontloaded  a tremendous market rally starting in march of 2009. It was sort of a reverse Wimpy factor. Give me two hamburgers today for one tomorrow. We had a tremendous rally and I think there’s a great digestive period that’s likely to take place now. And it may continue. Once again, we frontloaded, at the federal reserve, an enormous rally in order to accomplish a wealth effect. I would not blame this [the 2016 selloff] on China. We are always looking for excuses. China is going through a transition that will take a while to correct itself. But what’s news there? There’s no news there.”

“Box”: I guess the question Richard is: How ugly will it get? If you do see this big unwind of Fed Policy which fueled a 6 and one-half year bull market, what does it look like on the way down?

Fisher: “Well, I was warning my colleagues, if we have a 10-20% correction at some point. … These markets are heavily priced. They are trading at 19 and a half time earnings without having top line growth you would like to have. We are late in the cycle. These are richly priced. They are not cheap. …. I could see a significant downside. I could also see a flat market for quite some time, digesting that enormous return the Fed engineered for six years.”

“Box”: Richard, this digestive period, does it usher in an era where assets can’t perform in the absence of accommodation?

Fisher: Well, first of all, I don’t think there can be much more accommodation. The Federal Reserve is a giant weapon that has no ammunition left. What I do worry about is: It was the Fed, the Fed, the Fed, the Fed for half of my tenure there, which is a decade. Everybody was looking for the Fed to float all boats. In my opinion, they got lazy. Now we go back to fundamental analysis, the kind of work that used to be done, analyzing whether or not a company truly on its own, going to grow its bottom line and be priced accordingly, not expect the Fed tide to lift all boats. When the tide recedes we’re going to see who’s wearing a bathing suit and who’s not. We are beginning to see that. You saw that in junk last year. You also saw it even in the midcaps, and the S&P stripped of its dividends. The only asset that really returned anything last year, again if you take away dividends, believe it or not, was cash at 0.1%. That’s a very unusual circumstance.

“Box”: Richard. This has been an absolutely extraordinary interview. For you to come on here and say “I was one of the central bankers who engineered the frontloading of the banks, we did it to create a wealth effect” and then you go on and tell us, with a big smile on your face that we are overpriced, which is the word that you used, and there would be some digestive problems,  are you going to take the rap if there is a serious correction in this market? Will you equally come on and say “I’m really sorry we overinflated the market”, which is a logical conclusion from what you’ve said so far in this interview.

Fisher: First of all I wouldn’t say that. I voted against QE3. But there’s a reason for doing this. Let’s be fair to the central banks. We had a horrible crisis. We had to pull it out. All of us unanimously supported that initial move under Ben Bernanke. But in my opinion we went  one step too far, which is QE3. By March 2009 we had already bought a trillion dollars of securities and the market turned that week. To me, personally, as a member of the FOMC, that was sufficient. We had launched a rocket.  And yet we piled on with QE3, but the majority understandably worried we might slide backwards. I think you have to be careful here and frank about what drove the markets. Look at all the interviews over the last many years since we started the QE program. It was the Fed, the Fed, the Fed, the European central bank, the Japanese central bank, and what are the Chinese doing?  All quantitative easing driven by central bank activity. That’s not the way markets should be working.  They should be working on their own animal spirits, but they were juiced up by the central banks, including the federal reserve,  even as some of us would not support QE3.

 

 

 

The text below is not by me, but is a 12/16/2015 article by Yves De Kedrel, one of the weekly Le Figaro’s main coeds:“Europe is dying – Europe is dead”, it took them a long time to “understand”…, still they do not offer any “revival” possibilities, are “tired” and resigned…

De Kedrel repeats what my blog has been commenting upon for 4  four and a half years with no results whatsoever, having offered concrete alternatives which is more than most economists and analysts do, reason why I decided to abandon my daily posts since 2 months precisely, because the EC, EU and most country Presidents will always find  (bad mainly) reasons for not doing …

Quotes – Le Figaro’s Yves De Kedrel’s 12/16/2015 article:“Europe is dying – Europe is dead”

Whether in industry, the economy, security, Europe no longer shines in the world. Blame it on a bureaucracy whose sole purpose is to impose standards.
There brutal disappearances like that of Henrietta of England, sister of Louis XIV, Bossuet has immortalized with these beautiful words: “O disastrous night! O dreadful night when suddenly sounded like a burst of thunder, this amazing news: Madame is dying! Madame is dead!

“There are also disappearances that nobody perceives overnight but are the result of successive cowardice of knife strokes and leadership loss.

This is the case in Europe. Like it or not, in the space of a year, the European Union has become a sort of headless duck continues to run, without knowing that it no longer exists.

The ayatollahs of competition were able to prevent the formation of large groups able to cope with the American giants.

Industrial Europe is dead, murdered by the Brussels antitrust officials. By dint of repeating that the European Union should be an area that benefit its 500 million consumers, the ayatollahs of competition were able to prevent the formation of large groups able to cope with the American giants. In the space of a month, no less than three mergers to over $ 100 billion have been announced and will lead to the creation of industrial titans. Meanwhile Brussels officials continue to review rapprochement projects with the alpha

Omega and the notion of “relevant market” exceeded at the time of globalization and emerging markets.
The European Energy and Transport which was however one that existed before the Treaty of Rome, with Ceca, is dead, too, murdered by Angela Merkel after the tragedy of Fukushima in March 2011.
In deciding brutally net halt the use of any nuclear power, German Chancellor killed in the bud any ability of Europe to implement a common energy policy. A policy all the more necessary to meet the climate challenge, the challenge with our geopolitical dependence on Russian gas and industrial challenge, since the energy costs were previously in Europe a competitive advantage undeniable.

Financial Europe is dead too. She died in Athens last June with the intention of imposing any cost to a bankrupt country a doxa in stone there over twenty years and can not be the same for each country in the euro zone. The rule of the 3% budget deficit to gross domestic product has no more meaning than the will of the European Central Bank to limit inflation to 2% at the time when Jean-Claude Trichet was the bagman. Only managed to get by countries that were beyond such standards. As Britain or Sweden. And having let slip its budget deficit does not prevent London today to anticipate 2020 a return to balance its public accounts.

Only remains today a political Europe, a parliament become a machine to produce standards.
Indeed the growth of Europe is dead. The wealth of the euro area is expected to grow this year by 1.6% on average, against 2.5% in Britain, and more than 3% in the United States. Since the introduction of the euro, the “Old Continent” is one that displayed fifteen year the lowest growth rate of the entire planet. While at the same time the European countries had implemented the Lisbon strategy to make Europe “the most competitive economic area in the world (sic).” And when there is no more growth factories are closing, businesses go elsewhere. So that Europe has more than 25 million … of unemployed, twice the population of Belgium and a double unemployment in the United States.

The internal security of Europe also died with the demise of Schengen. It is not France that killed Schengen and the free movement of European citizens. It is with this senseless Angela Merkel will which decided unilaterally to open the doors of Germany to all migrants. Result: by bringing into its territory 950,000 refugees since the start of the year, it has forced its neighbors to restore their borders.

It remains today a pseudo political Europe, a parliament that has become a machine for producing standards, which feeds 30,000 Commission officials, a starry flaghship everyone has forgotten the meaning of the fired Apocalypse of St. John – which is normal for Eurocrats who did not want to admit the Christian roots of Europe – and Ode to Joy should be quickly replaced by a funeral march. Especially if Britain takes its independence in June 2016. De Profundis!