Archives for category: “Summit” meetings of all kinds are not decision making

It has taken me nearly six years but I have now arrived at the conclusion that this European Union (EU) and the Eurozone have proven to be real failures and that if one went down to brass tacks it would show that having this “Union” (sic) and the euro did not really make a positive difference; that the “whole shebang” should be scrapped, leaving only “pieces” (to be defined) to regroup  differently and basically  keep a “customs’ union”.

I have spent six years trying to understand and analize in as much depth as possible all this, written sinceApril 2011 – 2 000 post in my blog:“macrovolatility.com”, written in 2014 / 2015 two books in self-edition with Amazon with self-explanatory titles: “Why Obsolete Macro Governance Is Killing the World Economy” and “Growth through Structural Reforms” (With Leadership and Competence Great Opportunities Exist).

I am not agreeing anymore with what I had written many times in this blog, the last one on 06/25/2016 in my post: “Eurozone Governance Radical Change Needed to get to a “2 Speed” Area Organization“, it will not work either…(please refer to this by clicking on above link).

In fact the last drop was when reading several times these last days that Greece’s situation was still being discussed by all “the powers to be” – re The Guardian‘s 02/11 /2017 article:No crisis’ on Greece bailout deal, says eurozone chief”…!!!
All these European/Eurozone “top officials” are such great techno bureaucrats that reality has totally  escaped from their pseudo “thinking” (sic), in six years they have not been able to decide on Greece’s situation which only represents 1 to 2% of EU’s GDP!!!

In this blog I have written since at least 5 years that Greece should leave or be exited from the Eurozone for its own sake, it would now be quite rich with a low valued drachma hugely expanding tourism, the number one wealth item, instead it has cost the Eurozone a “fortune”, protected corrupt local politicians who refused to exercise the results of the June 2015 referendum where the bailout conditions were rejected by a majority of over 61% , with the “No” vote winning in all of Greece’s regions, the Greek people wanting Greece out of the hands of the totally incompetent Eurozone leaders, IMF, ECB and German Chancellor Merkel, the real Eurozone leader.Greece has 180% indebtedness vs GDP!!!

Greece is just the tip of the iceberg, add Italy (3rd Eurozone economy) with a huge debt (135% of GDP) and only 1% growth, Spain (4th Eurozone economy), probably the most competent and growing (3%!) mediterranean country, still hampered with huge unemployment, with banks not passing on ECB’s continued  flow of printed liquidity to credit facilities to the biggest employer, the SME/TPEs, its indebtedness as % of GDP having grown to be 100%.

France 2nd biggest Eurozone economy, with miserable 1.1% growth, huge unemployment, is under great political stress and  the Number one, by far, Eurozone economy, Germany (1.9% GDP growth and “only” 71% indebteness as % of GDP) continues with is parochial self-serving Eurozone policy, nobody in Brussels will interfere…

The Eurozone has been conceived as an erratic type of puzzle / potpourri of countries with totally different mentalities and ‘usus”, great differences in social-economic macrostructures, no real EU / Eurozone “Governance and with Germany having benefitted from the euro creation in 1999 onwards with a 20-30%  favorable euro/DM parity which has helped considerably to boost their economy to the detriment of the rest.

There is, finally no way all this will work (what, in reality?)

Let each country solve its own problems, they are all countries with a long history which will serve as the backbone, they need to adapt far more rapidly to all the past, present and future innovations in “technology” and its meteoric evolution, in other words the entire political class needs to change ASAP, let each nation’s government be responsible for their own situations and not anymore EU / Eurozone “Governances” (sic) which have no power and are Germany’s slaves.

Belatedly, as usual, European Union (EU)’s President warns against US President elect divisive tactics to the detriment of the EU’s stability.

US President elect decrees are mostly unacceptable to the civilized world and a (very bad) first in US’s “governmental” (sic) policies, especially the now nearly universally decried anti-immigration decree which this blog is denouncing for the fourth day in a row.

EU has not managed to construct a “working” political, social economic and not even even financial area (the latter beacuse of the erratic policies of ECB) because it has done mostly everything wrong from the beginning of the instauration of the Eurozone and has also accepted totally disparate membership of 28 member countries who do not ressemble each other in mentality and usus and were prone to be a fiasco, which it is, being unable to agree on practically any important topic and subjecting some nations to undue austerity instead of pushing for badly needed structural reforms .

In the 2000 posts I have written in my blog from April 2011 until October 2016 and my two books I have consistently proposed and described the change from the current EU “mammoth” to a radically new compact European Guidance Unit with a division between Northern countries and Southern ones who have nothing in common, with France somewhat in the middle, and due to huge past erroneous political expansion policies continuing with the inadequate integration of ex-satellite Communist countries which have created havoc with totally different remuneration, taxation and social protection “policies”.

I now, finally, feel that this renewed construction of Europe is also doomed and that it is preferable to go back to a customs’ union and abandon the euro, thus leaving each country to devise its own political and social economic systems, own deficit and indebteness ratios to GNP and be able to take its own eventual financial corrective actions.

If individual countries are having such a hard time governing themselves, blocs of countries will not be able to do their job plus a comprehensive “area” job with an umbrella as the euro which was devised far too early and totally unprepared with countries who had no harmony whatsoever in basic social economic policy structures.

The world has changed enormously and in a meteoric way technologically / innovationwise.

Governances need to adapt to these formidable changes which is very difficult for what seems to be a “lost political generation”.

Lets’count on and turn to the current young one who is in phase with these changes, it’s  a worthwhile bet I believe (as a “senior”…)

Please read below, under More,  NYT‘s 01/31/2017 article:”Trump Threatens Europe’s Stability, a Top Leader Warns”

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I am referring to my 06/25/2016 post: “Brexit not End of “World” but Hopefully End of EU Non Governance”, I am herewith repeating a concrete proposal made X times in my blog for a two-speed Eurozone to be installed instead of the past and current obsolete Eurozone Commission “organization (sic) of a 19 countries potpourri and a not decisive anymore Germany-France axis.

This “radical change proposal” is not due to the Brexit but to the decades’ long inefficiency and indecision of the EU and Eurozone’s “Governance.

The Brexit now happened and long exit negotiations will start on October 2016 and will last for 2 years at least and more. We will once more see how all the already announced  meetings will come out with zilch since everything is based on improvisation as usual.

Several forms of partnership with the EU exist, with varying degrees of integration. But none really are suited to the new situation created by the Brexit

The European Economic Area is not interesting for the UK since it would have to comply with EU legislation, neither is the “Swiss Compromise” and falling under WTO rules is not acceptable to the UK.

Therefore long negotiations might end with a revised free trade area scheme and other important mutual cooperation items  to be included in a series of bilateral country agreements.

In my blog and my September 2014 self-edited Amazon book on Eurozone “Governance” (“Why Obsolete Macro Governance is Killing the World Economy”) I made concrete proposals on how the Eurozone  could gradually reach social economic integration and accordingly  function efficiently. I will only include here the call them highlights:

I formulated my proposals by including a “modus operandi”, like with private corporations’ organization and inter functional “instructions”…

This Eurozone restructuring proposal needs to be understood as referring “only” (sic) to the social (including education and training) – economic and financial topics in Eurozone “Management”.

It does not extend to all the other ”regal” governmental areas, such as the major areas of health, defense and military, interior, foreign affairs, etc…

Instead of being an Organization which gives “Directives” to member countries, the Eurozone “Governance” should be reflexive, pro active, involved in “the “field” with local governments, in summary act as an executive counseling unit.

 From an “operational” standpoint, the 19 Eurozone countries should be divided, at the beginning, into 2 categories of countries:

–  “Speed 1 “ countries, these being the most performing countries, which are Germany, The Netherlands, Finland, Austria, including Luxembourg which is very ”atypical”.

 –  “Speed 2” countries, these being Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Greece (*), Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, to which I add France, the 2nd biggest Eurozone country, but whose future is quite uncertain for the time being.

(*) I have felt for a long time that Greece should have exited the Eurozone long ago, this would have been beneficial and far less costly to both the Eurozone and Greece itself.

If a corporation had kept a product which did not “make it” for years, it would have suffered considerably, and would have had to sacrifice putting adequate resources on their existing “good“ products” and eventual projects on ”new” products, running also the risk of lacking adequate financing for the whole corporation, this goes back to the famous and still actual BCG method of the 60’s of the ”golden cow and the rest  of the ”animals” (products) and what to do  with them…

Instead of having lost all this time and money, the Eurozone Governance (?) should have had positive discussions with the UK, second biggest country in Europe and 5h biggest economy worldwide which has been increasing its GDP and decreasing unemployment substantially.

1. Operational Social-Economic decision making organization and modus operandi

“Speed 1” countries will commit to transitionally financing “Speed 2” countries, under certain conditions, and mainly under a totally different reciprocal communication “methodology”, under the supervision, control  and follow –up of a new and compact Eurozone Central Governance Unit.

– All countries must prepare short (1 year), medium (3 to 5 years) and long-term term (above 5 years going up to 10 years) strategies, clearly defining priorities.

– All countries need to define Operational plans – short and medium term (see above)

– All countries need to determine their Financial Needs plans – short and medium term, based on operational plans

The Eurozone Central Governance Unit needs what private corporations call a “Controller”, which in macro terms should be called a Eurozone Minister of Economy, who reports to the “General Manager”, that is the President of Eurozone‘s Central Governance Unit.

This Eurozone Minister of Economy will head the Social-Economics Council, where the main responsibility is furthering job creation and reducing “official” unemployment and even more so under employment.

In private corporations, the Controller has reporting to him/her a “Planning Manager” who is knowledgeable of all “functions” of the corporation, to accordingly coordinate the various activities, and enable this function to plan effectively on a corporate basis to help build Operative corporate planning.

In every Eurozone member country’s government this function should be filled by the Budget Secretary reporting to the country’s Minister of Economy.

The Eurozone Economy Ministry includes under the Eurozone Planning Manager’s supervision: “country social – economic counselors” assigned to specific Eurozone Member countries.

In private corporations, there exists a “Human Resources Director” who reports to the “General Manager.”

In every member country’s government this function is that of the Minister of Labor, who reports to the Prime Minister.

This Minister of Labor function needs to be far more liaised with the Minister of Economy, and be closely related to the Budget Secretary, who needs to prepare, analyze and follow up on the country’s budget/plan. This is necessary in order to integrate the analysis of Job Creation and various forms of Unemployment and Underemployment, which are the top priority factors to be improved, into the Operational Planning of the country.

2. Financial modalities and decision making which are required to finance agreed upon strategic and operational plans.

The Eurozone Central Governance Unit needs what private corporations call a “Treasurer”, which in macro terms could be called a Eurozone Minister of Finance, who reports to the “General Manager”, that is the President of Eurozone‘s “Governance”.

The Eurozone Minister of Finance will head the “Finance Council”.

The Eurozone Finance Ministry includes under its supervision: “country financial counselors” assigned to specific Eurozone Member countries.

This pragmatic social economic and financial Eurozone Central Governance Unit organization is what will make for a dynamic, hands on, pro active, ”in the field working” and “managerial” relationship between the Central Eurozone Governance Unit and the various Eurozone’s countries ’governments.

It will have the great advantage of implicating – constantly – and giving responsibility on an individual basis to Eurozone’s countries’ Prime Ministers: Economy, Labor and Financial Ministers, and to their Governments obviously (Prime Minister and President).

This whole organization is extensively developed in my above cited book.

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Brexit is not the end of the world but it should (?) be the end of (continental) Europe as we have known it since the EU developed into a 28 nations potpourri and the Eurozone was badly created not starting by harmonizing tax structures and social protection system.

The not handling of the (poor) Greek situation is a perfect demonstration of the total inability of the bureaucratic and inefficient EU and Eurozone Commission “Governance” (sic) to not only solve problems, but (mainly) to provide guidance.

Greece, less than 2% of Eurozone’s GNP was the tail that wagged the dog. The populist Syriza party who with Tsipras won Greek elections on January 2015 (18 months ago) with a populist and unrealistic platform and ever since was given far too important and continuous attention by the EU (as usual), France, Germany, etc… and by ECB and IMF, costing every day more to the Eurozone taxpayers, when it should have been exited from the Eurozone at least 6-7 years before.

This undue and pernicious laxity and indecision favored immensely the eclosion of populist parties all over Europe.

The cries of victory from europhobe parties in (by order of GNP importance)  France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark (even Germany with AFD), etc… is not due to Brexit but was well preceded and “contaminated” by how Greece got and gets away with totally unacceptable behavior showing the huge limitations of EU and Eurozone “Governances” leaving the door open to populist “ideology” (sic).

These populist parties are or will demand the organization of consultations / referendums to exit their countries from the EU.

Europe enters a long tunnel of elections. The Spaniards are voting Sunday to elect their MPs and the election could favor Podemos, the party of the radical left hostile to Europe of austerity advocated by Germany. The Italians will be as follows in October with a referendum on the proposed reform of the Italian Constitution. The decision of Prime Minister Renzi, to transform this consultation into a plebiscite and resign if it fails will favor the populist 5 Star Movement (who gained two major successes already by obtaining Rome and Turin governance). The legislation in the Netherlands in March 2017 and the presidential election in France in May 2017  will also show considerable growth in representation of populist movements (PVV in Netherlands and FN in France). 

The inadequate austerity policies which Germany had tried to impose in 2013 instead of pushing for complete social economic structural reforms (which Germany had to a great extent accomplished since the beginning of the XXI century) created further strong disagreements between disciplined Northern  countries and lax Southern countries including France, the champion of budget laxity and “no reforms”…

This helped to create denials of solidarity in rapidly mounting indebtedness favored by ECB’s irresponsible “policies” putting the cart before the horses with money flooding, which now includes negative interest to banks, to push demand. Moneys mainly used by the “rich” companies and by nations to increase indebtedness, and little used by SMEs who employ 95% or more of the working population, which clearly shows that ECB, and Central Banking in general, have no policies to diminish effectively high unemployment, and mainly underemployment.

Now the EU and openly France, through Hollande’s declarations, want the UK to nominate immediately a new PM and not wait until October 2016 as Cameron declared. Why? Because the EU is afraid that more member countries might want to abandon the Eurozone, the real reason that could provoke this being the totally inefficient Governance of the EU and the Eurozone Commission and Germany’s parochial and selfish policies which make this country unfit to “indirectly govern” the Eurozone.

It will take well over 2 years to negotiate the Brexit and a number of bilateral agreements will see the day because intra EU – UK trade is not going to stop

I only wrote seven posts since October 2015 because it became too monotonous to write all the time the same comments with nothing happening because of the Governments’ obsolescence in general and the  total inability of the Eurozone “Governance” (sic) to reform macro social-economics in this supposed “common interest” area.

This may seem an arrogant statement but I have written 2000 posts from April 2011 until October 2015 and made a great number of concrete alternative proposals not limiting myself to criticism.

I have also written – 2014 / 2015 – in self-edition – Amazon – two books whose titles are self-explanatory: “Why Obsolete Macro Governance Is Killing the World Economy” and “Growth through Structural Reforms” (With Leadership and Competence Great Opportunities Exist).

The motto now is to reform Europe  social economically and contemplating huge migrants problems to “regain strong support of citizens” because “we must listen to the voice of the people rather than the Eurocrats – nice wording.

How? By successive meetings as usual, first (Monday, June 27th), between Germany, France, Italy, the Eurozone three top economies GNP wise and one day later by the  Council of the remaining 27 EU members. Nothing will come out of these unprepared (as usual) meetings…due to past and mounting cacophony.

The “future of Europe” (sic) is supposed to be played in Berlin, with lukewarm Merkel facing its – Germany – responsibilities (as usual). Some of the main European “leaders” (sic) will meet in Berlin on Monday, June 27th, around the Chancellor: EU Chairman Tusk, at first, and then, later on, Hollande and Renzi. They will prepare “all the response” (sic) that will be discussed next day at the European Council with two objectives: to prevent the risk of contagion to other member states tempted by an output and offer the prospect of a rebound for Europe (which is totally unprepared and will have no effect whatsoever).

Already the fight for predominance has started. The Elysee Palace announced Friday night that a first working dinner on Saturday (today) Hollande and Renzi will meet and Tusk will be “received”on Monday morning. The configuration of these meetings go beyond the traditional Franco-German axis, it reflects a competition between Paris and Berlin on the leadership of future discussions. The differences between Paris and Berlin on the future of the EU, the political weakness of the French head of state and criticism about the German Chancellor object to its policy in Europe are not likely to facilitate dialogue.

Merkel advocated  to “analyze calmly and wisely,” the consequences of Brexit. The procedure will be opened in the name of Article 50 of the Treaty “will last several years,” said the pragmatic Merkel, noting that by then Britain “remains a member of the Union” and was held by its commitments. If the Chancellor wants to warn PM Cameron’s  future successor against any unilateral decisions, it also intends to preserve the economic interests of Germany and of the EC. A hasty breaking might frontally affect the economies of the EU.

Growth, employment, intra-European financial solidarity, the influx of refugees, borders or defense, etc…, these are the main subjects which Merkel and Hollande are now on notice to discuss after a decade of immobilism. Then comes the headache of a possible (?) reconstruction of the EU, without rushing Twenty five capitals, now that the exit door was opened in the UK.

Is this the beginning of the end for the European Union?

“No!” Replied curtly Juncker, the most prominent figure of the Brussels “bubble”. Continental Europe is facing an earthquake, but the reflexes of eurocracy die hard.
Brussels had fallen asleep with the first estimates favorable to the British “yes”, but next morning, Friday, it awoke paralyzed by the “no” numbers. In shock, it tried all day to keep itself in countenance, with obsolete formulas. Whatever is officially said, no one doubt that this is now a matter of survival for the EU. Tusk, Chairman and organizer of EU summits is coming closer to the truth: “The situation is serious, it is very dramatic. It is impossible to predict all the consequences. (…) But what does not kill you makes you stronger in the end”.

An EU summit will convene at twenty-seven, without UK’s PM Cameron. This is the end of a long denial, a break with the legal fiction that the UK would remain a full member of the EU until the divorce is legally sanctioned, by two years.”This means that London is no longer associated with the decision says Martin Schulz, head of the European Parliament, a few journalists. The EU is determined (?…) to quickly turn the page and to proclaim to the whole world. “Europe wants to act quickly”. It would be the first time since the Eurozone was created…!

To avoid being “dismissed” the EU and the Commission request European country “leaders” to demand that the UK notify formally and immediately its intention to leave the EU, without waiting for October 2016 as declared by Cameron. “Outside, it’s out!”: the official slogan of the continent in a loop. “There will be no new negotiations” with London, confirms the European declaration.

The EU political priority is clear: avoid a chain reaction and counter what Hollande euphemistically called the “dilution” of the EU. He could have said dissolution…

The real threat to the unity of Europe from the North and the rich countries, who feel they have already given too much and could give, like the British, the temptation of isolationism.

The Southern countries have paid great social costs to their financial collapse since 2008 without reforming themselves socially economically, the big error!

Eastern Europe shows its rage at the uncontrolled influx of refugees and migrants. 

For most of them, the EU does not respond to the promise of its founders.It became a heavy techno bureaucratic non administration, a threat to their prosperity. The British drew the conclusion with Brexit.

What might, slowly and finally, be emerging sometime in the future is a two-speed Europe, this being most worrying to the Eurozone Commission since their jobs would be at peril – a Godsend should it happen!

In a nutshell it is what I have been “proposing” since April 2011 accompanied by this blog’s concrete alternative and practical “solutions”.

 

 

As repeatedly commented in five previous posts, the EU / EC was and is not able to define, far from implementing…, a common policy for a highly escalating Migration out of Syria.

“Summit Meetings” do not solve anything, in-depth prior thinking and planning is required.

Over 4 million people have left Syria lately and all the “advertising” made by EC’s President Juncker and his “Quotas” (first 120 000, lately down to 40 000, they have no clue!) plus  Germany – 800 000 entries in one year (!!!), have provoked stampedes of refugees trying to reach European”Nirvana” by all possible means…

The real solutions are “At The Origin”, in Syria and in the Middle East itself.

Until “Occidental” strong countries (including Russia who should not be primarily “fought” on the Ukraine situation and be “recovered” as an ally in terms of the Syria situation, something the US cannot “understand” seemingly – being weak in setting policy in Foreign Afffairs), starting with world leader US, do not establish policy where military action (air force, ground, whatever) come second to increasing all “Local” efforts to mobilize the civilians and the badly trained local armies against both the local dictatorship and mainly ISIS / DAECH, while “keeping” up with members of destroyed dictator’s “governement”, who know the ropes – this was one of the major errors committed in Iraq.

Many of the Syrians who are now leaving the country would have to stay to participate in this rebuilding effort, if its is rationally construed and with full participation of all “Occidental” forces and expertise.

The future of Syria cannot be foreseen with Assad, but that does not mean that everyone who has worked within the Baath party should be excluded from the future of their country. This was a big mistake in Iraq with Hussein and not choosing members of his entourage to”work with”, meaning that to organize , call it “national reconciliation”, to reintegrate members of the “old system” is necessary, practically speaking.

The worst “enemies” to start solving this huge problem are the “idealistic” (not that much…) and non realistic top politicians, supranational (EU / EC) and some per country, which propose universal entry, without credo / religion and work capacity discrimination, not taking into account (as with the creation of the Eurozone) the huge differences, in many aspects, between Eurozone countries.

Continued Reactivity and lack of in-depth thinking is the mark of the EU (European Union) and EC (European Committe), the mammoths which are supposed to “Govern” 28 and 19 mosaics of countries respectively, and have not fared better than the fiascos they provoked with too great austerity measures and no social-economic structural reforms in the last quinquennium and even before.

German top politicians declared that the EU was not showing solidarity and proposed sanctioning EU countries who were refusing to allow entry of refugees – most East European EU country members.

This German position is highly unacceptable, since they were those who unilaterally made these totally unrealistic declarations about “receiving 800 000 refugess in one year! Chancellor Merkel, a good politician, has already wirthdrawn from such parochial (sic) stands.

The terrible Migration situation which is Exploding Recently is Not New!

This shows the incapacity of the European / Eurozone “Governance” (sic) to anticipate these terrible human and economic situations with adequate and feasible planning.

The European Union (EU) and European Committee (EC) are incapable of establishing any rational planning and subsequent implementation, which has been proven since 2000 when the euro and Eurozone were launched under very erroneous social-economic premises.

This conduced the Eurozone to still be in a very pitiful situation, mainly on employment, where in many places unemployment (including under employment) have remained stagnant at very high levels; with published official unemployment equaling 11% of working population, which if  including under employment – where the real problems reside, exceeds 20% of non farm civilian working population!

Germany’s good situation, which is so because of past and large social-economic reforms, mainly those undertaken in the beginning of the 2000s decade, hides even larger Eurozone ratios, France being one of the leaders of this  extrememy high unemployment level because since 5 decades no social-economic real and complete reforms (other than “reformettes”) have been planned and therefore implemented, total unemployment still growing in the second biggest Eurozone economy…

Germany “wanted” to receive 800 000 because it is a Eurozone over average ageing nation and needs to rebuild a workforce, this leaves the big question on how many of the 800 000 “fit” jobs openings and working population development in Germany, and how Germany can organize itself to receive such an “invasion?

It also helps Germany to start reverting the image it has construed since the Eurozone was created, and from which it has greatly profitted, and mainly since the last quinquennium, of being a parochial and self-serving nation, not “helping” most of  its far less efficient Eurozone partner countries.

The EU, and EC mainly, “Governance” (…) are now undertaking to repeat their fundamental errors of incapacity of rational planning and implementation in terms of the “policy” (“politicking” being a more adequate word) expressed this week to start “solving” the Migration situation by EC ‘s President, Juncker, an obsolete “leader” (sic) as ad nauseum repeated in this blog for “his” EC (starting Nov. 1, 2014) and that of Barroso, his predecessor.

The solving of the terrible human tragic Migration situation which is only starting now, is directly related to, finally, implementing social-economic structural reforms, starting with labor flexibility, in most Eurozone countries, which due to great “inactivity”, will (if starting to be executed – ???) be a gradual process which is in direct contradiction with leaving masses of immigrants enter undiscriminately Europe and the Eurozone, as Juncker is now requesting without any realism, because all EU / EC ” leaders” are big talkers, good at “politicking” and very little else.

Numbers of people leaving Syria go up to 4 million people semingly (?), a “pot pourri” of “persecuted” and “economic” refugees, which will be very hard to “divide”.

Why, suddenly this very much publicized number of people leaving Syria?

Because the EU / EC – and Germany – have opened the valves and people have started to precipitate leaving Syria to enter “Nirvana”.

I am referring  to NYT‘s 09/18/2015 long article: “Europe Lacks Strategy to Tackle Crisis, but Migrants March On”which is shown entirely  next under “MORE”.

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The once more total reactivity of the non existing European and Eurozone Governance is again obvious, please refer to my 09/10/2015 post: “Migration – EC’s Juncker is dead wrong with proposed Quotas sytem, puts cart before horses” and to my 09/13/2015 one: “Migration – The impossible “Reception Dream” – Germany is invaded”.

This is what is now happening in Germany which is invaded by migrators which it cannot control!

This is what happens when statements are made that Germany will “take” 800 000 migrants in one year, not even “organized” Germany has the means to do so…

The terrible Migration situation which is Exploding Recently is Not New!

This shows the incapacity of the European / Eurozone “Governance” (sic) to anticipate these terrible human and economic situations with adequate and feasible planning.

I am referring to Le Figaro Premium who published today – 09/14/2015 – following article: “Migrants’ Crisis – The Schengen area no longer exists”, which I translated and will quote, preceding quotes with my own comments.

My Comments

The European Union (EU) and European Committee (EC) are incapable of establishing any rational planning and subsequent implementation, which has been proven since 2000 when the euro and Eurozone were launched under very erroneous social-economic premises.

This conduced the Eurozone to still be in a very pitiful situation, mainly on employment, where in many places unemployment (including under employment) have remained stagnant at very high levels; with published official unemployment equaling 11% of working population, which if  including under employment – where the real problems reside, exceeds 20% of non farm civilian working population!

Germany’s good situation, which is so because of past and large social-economic reforms, mainly those undertaken in the beginning of the 2000s decade, hides even larger Eurozone ratios, France being one of the leaders of this  extrememy high unemployment level because since 5 decades no social-economic real and complete reforms (other than “reformettes”) have been planned and therefore implemented, total unemployment still growing in the second biggest Eurozone economy…

The EU, and EC mainly, “Governance” (…) are now undertaking to repeat their fundamental errors of incapacity of rational planning and implementation in terms of the “policy” (“politicking” being a more adequate word) expressed this week to start “solving” the Migration situation by EC ‘s President, Juncker, an obsolete “leader” (sic) as ad nauseum repeated in this blog for “his” EC (starting Nov. 1, 2014) and that of Barroso, his predecessor.

The solving of the terrible human tragic Migration situation which is only starting now, is directly related to, finally, implementing social-economic structural reforms, starting with labor flexibility, in most Eurozone countries, which due to great “inactivity”, will (if starting to be executed – ???) be a gradual process which is in direct contradiction with leaving masses of immigrants enter undiscriminately Europe and the Eurozone, as Juncker is now requesting without any realism, because all EU / EC ” leaders” are big talkers, good at “politicking” and very little else.

More over Juncker is “kidding” the Eurozone population with the Quotas’ system he has published by country, which, as usual, are going to show, very rapidly, to be totally understated, an example being that Germany has been “allocated” 31 000 when the German Government is preparing to receive, in principle (?), 800 000 (26 x more!), this costing over 10 billions euros, which Germany can “afford” budgetwise, but having financial means is not everything!

Numbers of people leaving Syria go up to 4 million people semingly (?), a “pot pourri” of “persecuted” and “economic” refugees, which will be very hard to “divide”.

Why, suddenly this very much publicized number of people leaving Syria?

Because  the EU and EC have opened the valves and people have started to precipitate leaving Syria to enter “Nirvana”.

Any comparisons with the massive exode of Jews  in World War II is distorting, the type of population (I was one of them as a child) which left Germany had totally different characteristics than those now leaving Syria.

Germany now “wants” to receive 800 000 because it is a Eurozone over average ageing nation and needs to rebuild a workforce, this leaves the big question on how many of the 800 000 “fit” jobs openings and working population development in Germany, and how Germany can organize itself to receive such an “invasion?

It also helps Germany to start reverting the image it has construed since the Eurozone was created, and from which it has greatly profitted, and mainly since the last quinquennium, of being a parochial and self-serving nation, not “helping” most of  its far less efficient Eurozone partner countries.

The real solutions are “At The Origin”, in Syria and in the Middle East itself. Until “Occidental” strong countries (including Russia who should not be primarily “fought” on the Ukraine situation and be “recovered” as an ally in terms of the Syria situation), starting with world leader US, do not establish policy where military action (air force, ground, whatever) come second to increasing all “Local” efforts to mobilize the civilians and the badly trained local armies against both the local dictatorship and mainly ISIS / DAECH, while “keeping” up with members of destroyed dictator’s “governement”, who know the ropes – this was one of the major errors committed in Iraq.

Many of the Syrians who are now leaving the country would have to stay to participate in this rebuilding effort, if its is rationally construed and with full participation of all “Occidental” forces and expertise.

The future of Syria cannot be foreseen with Assad, but that does not mean that everyone who has worked within the Baath party should be excluded from the future of their country. This was a big mistake in Iraq with Hussein and not choosing members of his entourage to”work with”, meaning that to organize , call it “national reconciliation”, to reintegrate members of the “old system” is necessary, practically speaking.

The worst “enemies” to start solving this huge problem are the “idealistic” (not that much…) and non realistic top politicians, supranational (EU / EC) and some per country, which propose universal entry, without credo / religion and work capacity discrimination, not taking into account (as with the creation of the Eurozone) the huge differences, in many aspects, between Eurozone countries.

Quotescolored lettering is mine.

Gérard-François Dumont, president of the magazine Population & Avenir, Germany, which has reinstated controls on the Austrian border is taken by urgency before the influx of migrants on its territory.

LE FIGARO. – Faced with the continued arrival of migrants by train, Germany decided to suspend rail traffic from Austria, and strengthen border controls. The Czech Republic announced a similar strengthening its borders with Austria. How do you interpret these decisions?

Gérard-François Dumont. – The events taking place correspond to one of the ten laws of geopolitics of people whom I have appointed “law of numbers” *: when the number of asylum seekers was not very different from previous years, procedures provided is put in place without major difficulties. When the pressure becomes considerable number, nature of the phenomenon changes its nature and the situation becomes unmanageable, even for a country like Germany who expressed the initial desire to receive many asylum seekers and to finance consequences.

When Germany decided in late August to suspend the Dublin arrangements (under which any application for asylum must be made within the first European country in which the person sets foot) only for people from Syria, no other country European, not even France, has followed. Germany has thus left alone and still is to this day.

Like other European countries are not enrolled in its wake, the air call on Germany, especially on the closest Länder of Austria and then in Hungary, that is to say, countries lead the Balkan route, is considerably increased.

One wonders if Germany did not confuse federal management arrangements with the EU. After the Iron Curtain in 1989, Germany has welcomed hundreds of thousands of “late repatriates” (Spätaussiedler), that is to say, persons considered ethnic Germans under the Basic Law of 1949, but living in the USSR before. Berlin hosted a demographic distribution between the Länder.

In 2015, Germany thought that the same process of the Laender in Germany could be implemented between EU states, which is not a federation…

While an emergency meeting of Ministers of Interior and Justice in Europe is to be held in Brussels on today, Monday, Germany seeks to exercise a form of pressure on its neighbors, such as Poland, Slovakia or the Czech Republic, who do not want to apply the quota system

This decision is not a coincidence since it could also be taken a few days earlier, since the rise of migratory pressure was predictable. But Germany is especially taken by the emergency, struggling to deal with the law of numbers, as explained the Mayor of Munich on September 13.

What can we expect from the emergency meeting in Brussels?

Three scenarios are possible.

Or declarations of intent to give the impression that a solution to the crisis of migrants, with a displayed distribution of migrants, whose implementation may be random, probably because everything circumvented by some governments or the migrants themselves who want to move to where they can have a better network and better opportunities in terms of home and income.

Either announcements mean that we share the emotion felt since the release of the photograph of that poor boy Syrian but which in reality refer to a future meeting.

Third scenario, the failure: it acterait that the paths followed by the authorities in Brussels for months are inadequate or say anything to member countries that do not respect the terms of the Schengen Agreement, will distribute humans as commodities, and do not address the causes of the exodus and migration.

“We are already in a” Schengen 2 “, but with no set rules.”

Should there be a ‘Schengen 2 “as Nicolas Sarkozy evokedin Le Touquet this weekend?

In fact, all the events that took place in recent months at internal borders as the external borders of the Schengen area, show that the “Schengen 1” no longer works. We are already in a ‘Schengen 2’, but with no set rules, where divergent decisions of the European Union Member States or of the Schengen area not members of the European Union, such as Switzerland.

How do you see the weeks and months ahead?

For a long time I announced the surge in migration in Europe, since they include the direct result of geopolitical events taking place since 2011 and the lack of anticipation of European countries, particularly in the Syrian area and the Libyan zone, where no political solution emerges.

Syrian civil war is very special, not only because of the presence of the Islamic State, but because of the plurality of groups that oppose military. The exodus is not likely to stop, especially since it was found amplified by the lack of reaction to the offensive of the Islamic State of Palmyra.

In addition, among the first countries of asylum, Erdogan’s Turkey does little – put it mildly – to facilitate a political solution and do nothing discourages the departure of the Syrians to other destinations, as if she wanted contribute to hinder and even destabilize the EU.

* Political Demography. The laws of geopolitical populations, Paris, Ellipses.

 

After the “supposed” Deal struck after a 10 hours’ long “Summit” (sic) marathon ended early on 07/13/2015 in Brussels, All Participants are Losers: Greece, the European (EU) and Eurozone (EC) “Governances”, the Eurogroup, Germany – “de facto” Eurozone leader, France and all compromising Eurozone countries, IMF, ECB, et al.

I am quoting two NYT articles: ” NYT‘s 07/13/2015 article: “Premier of Greece, Alexis Tsipras, Accepts Creditors’ Austerity Deal”and NYT‘s 07/13/2015 article: Deal on Greek Debt Crisis Exposes Europe’s Deepening Fissures”, so that readers can obtain the “News” as related by a well known and serious source.

Both will be shown entirely below “More” at the end of this post.

I will summarize comments I have been making on a daily basis on this monumental fiasco of  the – temporary – outcome of over five months negotiations between the newly elected (January 2015) left, radical, populist Greek government and the “compromising” EC / EU / Eurogroup, Germany, other Eurozone countries, IMF, ECB et al…

My Comments

The Eurozone and European Governances reached their utmost level of incompetence in these five-six months’ negotiations with a shameless left, radical, populist newly elected (January 2015) Greek government, who started of  by trying to impose its will on all European and Eurozone supposed authorities, who paid far too much and too long attention to these two  actual, call them, sort of would be “blackmailers”: Prime Minister Trsipras and his alter ego game playing Finance Minister, Varoufakis.

Not that this Greek government had it “all wrong”, it was how they went about trying to negotiate “forcefully” that was obnoxious! It was right to try and get Greece off the hands of the “ex-troika” ( EU, IMF, ECB) who have practically ruined Greece with their misguided directives and even worse timing, obtaining a 25% (at least) decrease of Greece’s GDP over five years, total indebtedness growing to 180% (shortly to double Greece’s dwindling GDP), total unemployment reaching 26% in April 2015 (w/o under employment) of working population, and an impoverished and stressed to the hilt, antagonistic Greek population, who wrongly, believed Syriza party’s leader Tsipras totally unrealistic pre electoral promises.

But Tsipras  was very wrong, because successive Greek governments had ruined their country, the oligarchs having  taken their money long ago off Greek limits, corruption having installed  itself, practically nobody paying taxes, a total “managerial” incapability to put order into an undisplined country, but the “new” Greek government will match this incapability and will not be able to “honor” all promises given to EU, EC, IMF (who will, once more (try…) to “control” everything…), ECB , promises to directives which as already above commented are even more misguided and untimely than previous ones (five -six years”troika” ones), and impossible to achieve.

All this “Deal” still needs to be approved by All Eurozone Parliaments, starting with Greece’s one – tomorrow – 07/15/2015 (?), which would require Greece to swallow a wide array of measures, including pension cuts and tax increases, and effectively subject itself to intensive international oversight in order to qualify for the aid, and then followed by all other parliaments, another lenghty process.

In signing on to the deal, however reluctantly, Mr. Tsipras suddenly found himself as the champion of policies he was elected to oppose and the best hope for de-escalating a crisis he had – himself – helped create.

Many of the changes demanded by Creditors are politically extremely tough to accept: increasing the consumption tax to 23 percent for a range of goods and services, raising the retirement age to 67 and reducing more pension benefits in an aging population, imposing privatizations, etc….

But, Mr. Tsipras, as all “politicians” of a certain level (sic), makes another – the”umptieth “- big turnaround. He, who had once vowed to overturn the austerity policies he said had undercut the Greek economy and left its people suffering, was no longer talking of “blackmail” by creditors or “hostage taking.” Instead, he now says that the new “package” of proposals would “maintain Greece’s financial stability and provide recovery potential”. This is all “promises, promises”, part of a “big circus”!

If this “Deal” ever gets to be approved, it will be a shot in the arm to all European Extremist Parties (*) who will argue electorally that Germany and Europe / Eurozone Governance are making “slaves” out of the Greek, and that it is time to jump ship and leave the Eurozone. (*) “Front National” (France), “Podemos” (Spain), “Five Star Movement” (Italy), “UKIP” (UK), etc…

The outcome of these “negotiations” (sic) could only be an artificial, not lasting, “compromise”, seeing the (very) different agendas and attitudes of all intervenants:

Germany, the real Eurozone leader for years now, with a continued  parochial attitude, safeguarding local electorate vote, caring two hoots for Eurozone advancement, sticking behind its disciplinarian and constitutional rigidities, which work very well for them, but are not adaptable to Southern countries and, to the second biggest Eurozone economy, France, the second “member” of the”famous” German / French “duo”…, the latter having fallen behind Germany’s social- economic performances for over a decade.

Germany is incapable of leading the Eurozone and has become a great obstacle to its – eventual ? – development.

Germany will, in extremis, accept “some” Greek debt re structuration, no “haircuts / debt forgiveness, an additional third bailout (current estimates are 86 billion euros – of good money thrown after bad one – Gresham ‘s famous and valid law), but all this, only once that Greece has met – in paper – all “directives” and proven over a far too short period of time, that it will respect “promise” made…

A 50 Billion “new type” of Luxembourg trust– fund is being proposed by Germany, to be created and  located in Athens, but not under Athens control but Eurozone one, estimated to amount 50 billion euros, being , mainly, the source of all kinds (?) of privatizations of State assets, the total amount of 50 billion euros being totally unrealistic and not achievable… Half of the proceeds (25 billion euros?) to be used for bank recapitalisation and a quarter each (12.5 billion euros ?) to be used for debt repayments – and investment (?).

Germany’s Chancellor, Mrs. Merkel, now declares she is favor of Greece staying in the Eurozone, after having said about Greece on Sunday that “the most important currency has been lost: that is trust and reliability.” But many Germans think the most important currency that has been lost is the deutsche mark, the symbol of “rectitude and confidence that embodied West Germany’s ascent from the ashes of World War II”. But, this was achieved  with the big help of a Marshall Plan, never reimbursed, memories are short, when convenient…

But, due to its (still?) dominant position in the Eurozone, Germany is trying (very) hard to make this “deal “so tough for Greece to make, that it becomes practically impossible to achieve.

Germany had proposed, before the “summit” (extra officially…) that in case of faliure of negotiations, Greece be given a period of “leave of absence” to “put its house in order” (sic) while still remaining  a Eurozone member, a totally theoretical “proposition”.

France‘s President, Mr. Hollande, the king of compromise, both internally in France and externally, has “battled” for whatever compromise was possible, and so far (humbly) considers himself as a “savior”, it will not last.

France has a vested interest in a Eurozone statu quo, since it is the only country in the Eurozone which for four to five decades has not implemented, and not planned for either, a single – significant – social-economic structural reform, but “Brussels” leaves France in peace…

The European (EU) and Eurozone (EC) so called” Governances”, who, once more, took a  back seat to Germany, have, again, shown  that solidity is badly lacking in their “performances” (sic) as all this confronts the limits of their ambitions (?), and Monday morning’s painful “Deal” (?) on Greece will not restore it.

This latest “effort” to preserve Greek membership in the Eurozone has only deepened the fissures within the EU, between Germany – North and France – South, between advanced economies and developing ones, between large countries and smaller ones, between lenders and debtors, and, just as important, between those 19 countries within the Eurozone and the 9 European Union nations outside it.

It remains to be seen if the EU and EC can now, after so many years, lift its head from this larger than Greek crisis and begin to concentrate on the “really important” issues: providing economic growth and jobs for its working population and young people, a rational and unified policy on migration, a response to Russian ambitions in Ukraine, where US pushes for sanction’s escalation nocive to Europe, and a British vote on whether to leave the European Union.

A so-called Brexit — an exit by Britain, which has overtaken France as Europe’s second-largest economy and is one of Europe’s main military and diplomatic actors, with a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council would be far more damaging to the European Union than the departure of small, difficult Greece.

IMF’s Executive Director, Mrs. Lagarde’s, latest two declarations (before and after Greek Referendum)  stressed the need for restructuring the Greek Debt, even considering partial debt forgiveness, which had been categorically excluded by Germany arguing this was contrary to Eurozone treaties, plus a third bailout. 

The US having great influence on IMF’s decisions, commented on 07/08/2015 – through declarations by its Secretary of Treasury, Mr. Lew, that Greece should “take the actions that it needs to take so that Europe will restructure the debt in a way that is more sustainable.” Mr. Lew also said of a Grexit: “Geopolitically it would be a mistake”.

Mr. Dragui, ECB’s President, quoted by the Italian newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore, Mr. Draghi expressed his doubts in an unusual way on the possibility of reaching a compromise between Greece and its creditors. “I do not know, this time it’s really hard,” said the president of the ECB, usually more reserved in public. Reference was once more made to eventual aid from Russia (a week ago Mr. Tsipras saw President Putin with no “results”), Mr. Dragui commented: “That doesn’t seem a real risk to me. They [the Russians] don’t have money either”…

The above comments show the big diferentials between Greece’s Creditors, this “new Deal” will not appease them.

Read the rest of this entry »

 

The Greek series continue like all (cheap) sitcoms…

As this blog has commented a “hundred” times, a new “delaying tactic” has been devised, seemingly.

One has to say “seemingly” since the so called “European  Governance “changes opinions from one minute to the other…

Latest “News”:

The Eurogroup is considering a temporary exit of Greece (Document included)
07.12.15 at 19:21 – Investir.fr 0 Comment (s)

The Eurogroup considers, in a document prepared for the Heads of State and Government of the euro area, a temporary exit of Greece to allow a restructuring of its debt, according to a Document has been able to consult Reuters.

The four-page text enumerates a long list of conditions – apparently already accepted, mostly by Greece – Athens to obtain a new aid program and proposed to the Heads of State and Government two conclusions possible.

The first is the approval of a bailout plan, the second suggests that, failing agreement, “it is proposed to Greece speedy negotiations on a temporary exit from the Eurozone, with a possible debt restructuring . “

This formulation echoes a paper presented Saturday at the Eurogroup by Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister

This follows  prior”news”…: “End of the Eurogroup, Greece must enact laws by Wednesday”” – umptieth deadline – the story of the wolf…

07.12.15 at 16:39 – Reuters Comment (s):

The finance ministers of the Eurozone gave Greece until Wednesday – 07/15/015 – to pass laws and reforms as a precondition for opening negotiations on a new aid plan, announced Sunday the Finnish Minister Alexander Stubb.

The Eurogroup ended in agreeing a common text that will now be examined by the Heads of State and Government, also meeting in Brussels.

“There is a very good proposal on the table (…) but which has a high conditionality, on three points,” said the Finnish Minister. “One, the adoption of legislation by 15 July, 2015. With two, harsh conditions such as reforms of the labor market or pensions, VAT or taxes. Three severe measures on privatization .

“The package must be approved by the Greek government and the Greek Parliament, and then we can watch (to open negotiations on an aid plan),” said Alexander Stubb.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Eurogroup President, confirmed that a proposal would be submitted to the Heads of State and Government. “We have come a long way but there are still some major issues to resolve, it will be the heads of government to decide,” he has said to the output of the meeting.

“There has been progress today, even if differences of opinion remain. It is now the Heads of State or Government to find a solution,” added Commissioner Pierre Moscovici…

My Comments

Due to continued divisions among Eurozone countries themselves, European Commission (EU), European Union ( EU) IMF and ECB, Eurogroup’s finance ministers could not freach an agreement in their today – 07/11/2015 – meeting upon Greece’s future in the Eurozone, which was to be expected, as this blog did.

The Greek Parliament voted favorably a early yesterday – 07/11/2015 – Greece’s Prime Minister’s Tsipras proposals to the European Commission, with the more leftish side of the Syriza party having signaled before the vote occurred that they could not back up proposals on  tax increases and spend cuts after that PM Tisapras “new” proposals had been rejected by the Greek Referendum held last Sunday with a “No” vote...

The EC, ECB and IMF, seemingly declared yesterday that the latest Greek proposals could be the basis for further negotiations on an aid plan.

But, the Eurogroup could not manage, n either yesterday, nor today, to make a “united” proposal that could be “transmitted” to Eurozone’s Heads of State for their”umptieth summit” meeting to take a decision (sic)….

Greece should have been Exited from the Eurozone, it will not be able to “manage” itself and neither will the “ex-troika” (EC, ECB, IMF)…, my continued personal opinion.

Greece had given some “satisfaction” to Eurozone “Governance” (sic) requests by proposing an … “Austerity” plan – with increased taxes on income, an increased TVA rate (probably not up to 23% rate requested), pension retirement age delayed, cuts in defense expenses, etc… the actual plan was, still, not published, so far...  Seemingly, no real social-economic structural reforms are included in this new “plan” ?

This plan includes the contrary that the “No” in the Referendum approved and what made Syriza’s Leader Tsipras, this left, radical, populist party’s leader become Prime Minister, had promised in order to win elections in January 2015…

The Greek PM Tispras promises, because this is what they are – promises, where very little will be implemented (past history showing this), was asssorted by requests to restructure Greece’s 320 billion public debt, obtaining partial forgiveness / hair-cut (my estimate – one third, 100 billions euros) and asking for a now additional third bail-out of 53 billion euros (increased now to 82 billion euros because of time lost in last weeks…).

I “predict” …, that, maybe (?), an umptieth offer might be accepted – but only some time in the months (?) to come – by the Greek Creditors, because no one, among  Greek Creditors, wants to assume responsibility for the big “Mess” they All created over five – six years, diminishing Greece’s GDP by 25% (or more?) over 5 years, bringing Greece’s Indebtedness to, now, over 180% (closing in on doubling ratio to GDP), leaving an impoverised and antagonistic “poor” Greek population, this with the “total” help of successive Greek Governments, some of them, corrupt, which did practically nothing to help to “save” their country.

These “new” measures, which the incapable European Commision, and European Union, once more (!) shoved down Greece’s throats, are once more, mainly, austerity ones (tax increases, spend decreases, with no social–economic structural reforms being stressed. In summary, “more of the same” that already destroyed Greece.

With the divergences existing between Creditors, and even Syriza itself in Greece, this “plan” might be accepted…as the necessary “evil” to allow Greece to stay in the Eurozone, to me (mil repetita) a great mistake.

Three different attitudes prevail between the Greek “Creditors”: Eurozone countries – add EFSF / ECB / IMF, who represent over 80% of the Greek public debt of 320 billion euros.

European Commisission President, Mr. Juncker, had finally not ruled out a Greek Exit from the Eurozone, but France was the large est Eurozone country showing discrepancy, its President, Mr. Hollande, pushing desperately for compromise (his “birthmark”), France being, with Greece, the only Eurozone country not having implemented social-economic structural reforms since 4-5 decades, and trying to be the “savior” of Eurozone’s “unity”, by keeping Greece in the Eurozone, which would be a internal political victory for Mr. Hollande.

Only “de facto” Eurozone leader, Germany’s Chancellor, Mrs. Merkel, continued being opposed to any “deal”, if such “deal” includes a  reduction of Greece’s total Debt, arguing it was contrary to Eurozone Treaties. Berlin will not mandate any debt forgiveness, which would immediately write-off a portion of Greece’s 320 Billion debt. Mrs. Merkel, nevertheless, commented on extending maturities. She added that Germany signed up to such relief measures only three years ago.

Mr. Dombrovskis, one of EC’s VPs said “there is some willingness to look at this issue” in the bloc. Debt relief was unlikely to come in the form of a “haircut”, however, and more likely via an extension of the timeframe in which Greece would have to repay its debts to fellow Eurozone members.

Mr. Tusk, European Council (EU) President, one of  the toughest critics of Athens’ “deeds” in recent weeks, said he had spoken to Mr Tsipras on Thursday and agreed that any bailout deal should include debt relief for Greece.

Mrs. Lagarde, IMF Executive Director, involved in the negotiations, has complicated the situation last Wednesday night by again (she already did so 3 days before the Referendum, showing great differences with (supposed) EU / EC “Governance” and also ECB), stressing, in Washington, the need for a restructuring of Greek debt, which had been categorically excluded by Germany, arguing this was contrary to Eurozone treaties. 

The US having great influence on IMF’s decisions, commented on 07/08/2015 – through declarations by its Secretary of Treasury, Mr. Lew, that Greece should “take the actions that it needs to take so that Europe will restructure the debt in a way that is more sustainable.” Mr. Lew also said of a Grexit: “Geopolitically it would be a mistake”.

Mr. Dragui, ECB’s President, quoted by the Italian newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore, Mr. Draghi expressed his doubts in an unusual way on the possibility of reaching a compromise between Greece and its creditors. “I do not know, this time it’s really hard,” said the president of the ECB, usually more reserved in public. Reference was once more made to eventual aid from Russia (a week ago Mr. Tsipras saw President Putin with no “results”), Mr. Dragui commented: “That doesn’t seem a real risk to me. They [the Russians] don’t have money either”…

 

 

Since the Greek “series” stopped yesterday to be renewed today, there are no “News. I am – in between, – quoting latest “Le Figaro ” editorial, which I translated, and you can make your own opinion about it.

My blog, continues to think that there will be no agreement today and that as usual, the whole thing will be postponed, nobody wants to assume blame for this  five- six years in the making “mess” and even less pay for it…

My opinion continues being that Grece must be exited from the Eurozone and that no “fresh” money has to be put in the pot- Good money should not be followed by bad one (Gresham’s famous law),.

Greece will never be able to manage itself and neither will the curent European / Eurozone (non) Governance.

Rendez – vous later in the day…

Le “Figaro”s editorial – Quote

Phew! This time, the Greek bomb does seem defused: the magic of a narcotic acrobat number of Alexis Tsipras Athens and its creditors should, barring unforeseen events, sign in the coming hours a totally unimaginable agreement here another two days. After the extraordinary tension of recent times, the whole of Europe will finally be able to breathe.

Forget the summits of the last chance, sterile discussions and bird names. Celebrate the great reconciliation on behalf of the European ideal. But above all, if all goes as planned, Greece will not sink into chaos and Europe will not venture on a road lined with uncertainty and danger. Whatever the weaknesses of the agreement under discussion, everyone must objectively welcome this happy ending.

If the acute phase of the crisis seems overcome, however, the story is not over. Alexis Tsipras, about to get a new aid and a gesture on the debt, it is now up to its commitments. After no to austerity he himself applied to his people, he will need all his political genius to impose it. It goes without saying that no deviation, however small, can not be tolerated in the future and will report regularly to its creditors.

Time will tell whether the potion accepted by Greece will allow it to regain health. But in the meantime, this crisis has demonstrated the absurdity of what happens to populist programs, left and right. This is evidence by Tsipras: nobody, Syriza to Podemos through the National Front and the Left Front, the recipe shaves gratis. Those who propose to leave the euro to get rid of any stress management and build an economic paradise can measure where it leads. As for the voters who believed that it was enough to send graze creditors and the horrible finance to solve problems, they now know what that kind of promise leads to.

No agreement on Greece yesterday, still differences on taxes and pensions, the Eurogroup meeting ended without compromise, “decisive” (sic)  meeting on Saturday morning – 06/27/2015.

My Comments – Which do not change from post to post…

The whole Greek matter is ridiculous and shows the “politicking” going on all around, in Greece and with Its Creditors.

Both want Greece to stay in the Eurozone for different reasons.

Greece’s “government” because the population that elected them under fase premises: Totally unrealistic  promises, but nevertheless think they are better off remaining within the Eurozone compared to being “governed” by their own (successive) politicians…

The Creditors – EU/EC, ECB, IMF – because they do not want to assume the Cost – Default –   320 billion euros Greek Debt – of the mess they created  (together with successive partly corrupt, inefficient Greek governments) over 5 to 6 years, with Troika’s misguided interventions / directives and very wrong timing, which ended up by “producing” a 25% fall of  Greece’s GDP, over 180% of GDP  Indebtedness, and a now Bankrupt Greece.

If the EU/ EC  – really (sic)  want to keep Greece in the Eurozone – a Big Mistake to me (mil repetita) –  they need to allow for Greece’s Debt Restructuration which means taking the following decisions:

Either forego part, at least, of the Greek Debt or allow for a “100” (or whatever) years repayment period, because Greece will Never be able to repay their debt. It wiill, also, require a third Bail-Out(say, 50 billion euros) to keep Greece “alive” to start implementing Structural Reforms and not only Spend Cuts, Reforms which are NOT made ASAP (the big troika conntinued error!)

To continue – Germany and IMF insisting on further cuts is absolutely meaningless, downright wrong (not to use another word) and totally unrealistic, proof is that the “one track minded” troika did exactly this for five – six years, failing totally and obtaining the contrary.

Greece’s “government”(sic) needs to” sign in blood” a firm and unequivocal agreement, to – gradually – following a set agenda which requires great follow-up, implement the necessary Social-Economic Structural Reforms, which by the way, most OTHER larger Eurozone member countries, like France, second in size Eurozone economy, have not implemented either during four decades.

But, due to the all around “poiticking / game playing”, it will all end on the last minutes of the fatal date, June 30, 2015 (3 days from today), with some “gimmicky agreement”, which will artificially throw the can forward – hoping for some “miracles”…

News – Reuters – 

Talks between Greece and its creditors were interrupted Thursday no agreement has been reached and the finance ministers of the Eurozone will meet again Saturday, three days before athe 06/30/2015 key deadline that could put Greece in default.

The Eurogroup meeting, the third since the beginning of the week, ended with a new failure, the discussions on the proposals submitted by Athens and those of the ‘institutions’ creditors (European Commission (EC), European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) did not allow to develop a compromise document.

Speaking at the end of the first day of the Brussels European Council, Angela Merkel said on the night of Thursday to Friday that the next meeting of finance ministers of the eurozone would be decisive for a solution, François Holland meanwhile evoking a meeting that was “crucial”. “We say, not without weighing our words, that the Eurogroup will be of decisive importance, taking into account the fact that the deadlines are very short and it takes hard work to a result,” said German Chancellor.

Before the European Council, Angela Merkel had stressed to representatives of the European People’s Party (EPP) that an agreement on Greece was to be concluded before the markets open on Monday morning, reported two participants in the meeting. According to these sources, she assured that her country would not accept “blackmail” on the part of Athens.

Without an agreement to release the 7.2 billion euros in aid remaining to be paid to Greece, it will not be able to repaythe 1.6 billion euros to IMF before the deadline of 30 June, 2015.

Such a default would force probably the authorities to adopt capital controls and open the way for a possible forced exit of Greece from the Eurozone.

In the afternoon yesterday, the president of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, assured that “the door remains open for the Greek side who can bring new proposals or accept what is on the table”.

The Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, has meanwhile downplayed the scope of the meeting from failure. “The institutions will once again consider the two documents, our documents and there will be discussions with the Greek government and we will continue until we find a solution,” he told the press.

After five months of often tense discussions, the Commission, the IMF and the ECB had given the Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, until mid-morning for their forward a draft credible reforms, saying that without proposals they would submit their own text to the Eurogroup.

But Athens has left this ultimatum expire sticking to the proposals Greece presented last Monday and modified marginally since. The government document Tsipras notably provides for the continuation of the exemption from VAT enjoyed by the Greek islands.

After three hours of meeting, Alexis Tsipras left the Commission building with a smile and the thumbs but without making any comment.

Diplomats explain that the tactics adopted by the Creditors reflects their exasperation at the refusal of the Greek Prime Minister to compromise on key issues such as pensions, reform of labor market, wages and taxation, that Syriza calls its “red lines”.

Greek officials close to the negotiations have said that Athens had made concessions on these red lines by proposing to raise certain taxes and increase social contributions of pensioners.

In their eyes, the creditors have proved they did not have the will to reach an agreement by changing abruptly estimates the product of each of the proposed measures, which complicated the development of an acceptable proposal .

In Greece, politicians continue to show their distrust vis-à-vis creditors. “The demands of creditors to bring to the table destructive measurements show that blackmail against Greece reached its climax,” said Nikos Filis, spokesman for Syriza MPs, the Mega television channel.

He added that his party continued to require a reduction in the burden of debt included in any agreement.

“There can be no agreement without solid reference and without specific decisions on the issue of the debt itself,” said Panos Skourletis, the Greek Minister of Labour, public broadcaster ERT.

But Angela Merkel reiterated during his press conference in the middle of the night, it was impossible at this stage, to allocate to Greece a further sum of money as that which remains to be paid under its second bailout.

In Frankfurt, a source close to the discussions in the direction of the ECB reported that Jens Weidmann, the president of the German Bundesbank, had expressed to colleagues Eurozone concerns about the granting of funds Emergency Greek banks.

The Governing Council of the ECB, which holds a daily teleconference on the financial situation of Greece, nevertheless Thursday approved the amount of emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) requested by Greece for its banks, said a banking source in Athens .

Given the continued uncertainty, the major European stock markets ended on a hesitant note and the euro was stable against the dollar around 1.12.